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3 ways to thwart North Korea nukes

Luke Skywalker

Super Moderator
{vb:raw ozzmodz_postquote}:
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United Nations report describes a brutal North Korean state "that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world."" border="0" height="360" id="articleGalleryPhoto001" width="640"/>A North Korean soldier uses binoculars on Thursday, February 6, to look at South Korea from the border village of Panmunjom, which has separated the two Koreas since the Korean War. A new United Nations report describes a brutal North Korean state "that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world."
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A North Korean soldier kicks a pole along the banks of the Yalu River, near the North Korean town of Sinuiju, on Tuesday, February 4.
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A photo released by the North Korean Central News Agency on Thursday, January 23, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspecting a North Korean army unit during a winter drill.
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Kim inspects the command of an army unit in this undated photo released Sunday, January 12, by the North Korean Central News Agency (KNCA).
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Kim visits an army unit in this undated photo.
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A picture released by the KNCA on Wednesday, December 25, shows Kim visiting an army unit near the western port city of Nampo.
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Kim inspects a military factory in this undated picture released by the KNCA on Friday, May 17.
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Kim visits the Ministry of People's Security on Wednesday, May 1, as part of the country's May Day celebrations.
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A North Korean soldier, near Sinuiju, gestures to stop photographers from taking photos on Saturday, April 6.
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North Korean soldiers gather by the docks in Sinuiju, near the Chinese border, on Thursday, April 4.
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North Korean soldiers patrol near the Yalu River on April 4.
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Kim is briefed by his generals in this undated photo. On the wall is a map titled "Plan for the strategic forces to target mainland U.S."
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Kim works during a briefing in this undated photo.
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In this KNCA photo, Kim inspects naval drills at an undisclosed location on North Korea's east coast on Monday, March 25.
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Kim, with North Korean soldiers, makes his way to an observation post on March 25.
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Kim uses a pair of binoculars to look south from the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment, near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island, on Thursday, March 7.
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Kim is greeted by a soldier's family as he inspects the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment on March 7.
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Kim is surrounded by soldiers during a visit to the Mu Islet Hero Defense Detachment, also near Taeyonphyong Island, on March 7.
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Kim arrives at Jangjae Islet by boat to meet with soldiers of the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment on March 7.
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Soldiers in the North Korean army train at an undisclosed location on Wednesday, March 6.
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In a photo released by the official North Korean news agency in December 2012, Kim celebrates a rocket's launch with staff from the satellite control center in Pyongyang, North Korea.
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Kim, center, poses in this undated picture released by North Korea's official news agency in November 2012.
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Kim Jong Un visits the Rungna People's Pleasure Ground, under construction in Pyongyang, in a photo released in July 2012 by the KNCA.
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A crowd watches as statues of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung and his son Kim Jong Il are unveiled during a ceremony in Pyongyang in April 2012.
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A North Korean soldier stands guard in front of an UNHA III rocket at the Tangachai-ri Space Center in April 2012.
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In April 2012, Pyongyang launched a long-range rocket that broke apart and fell into the sea. Here, the UNHA III rocket is pictured on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.
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A closer look at the UNHA III rocket on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.
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A military vehicle participates in a parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.
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North Koreans wave flags in front of portraits of Kim Il Sung, left, and Kim Jong Il during celebrations to mark the 100th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung in Pyongyang in April 2012.
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North Korean soldiers relax at the end of an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang in April 2012.
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Kim Jong Un applauds as he watches a military parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.
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A North Korean soldier stands on a balcony in Pyongyang in April 2012.
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North Korean soldiers march during a military parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.
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Soldiers board a bus outside a theater in Pyongyang in April 2012.
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North Korean performers sit below a screen showing images of leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang in April 2012.
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North Korean soldiers salute during a military parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.
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North Korean soldiers listen to a speech during an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang in April 2012.
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Members of a North Korean military band gather following an official ceremony at the Kim Il Sung stadium in Pyongyang in April 2012.
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North Korean military personnel watch a performance in Pyongyang in April 2012.
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A North Korean controller is seen along the railway line between the Pyongyang and North Pyongan provinces in April 2012.
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A North Korean military honor guard stands at attention at Pyongyang's airport in May 2001.



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  • North Korea may launch nuclear test to coincide with Obama's visit to South Korea
  • Writers: If it's a more serious provocation, it could signal an uptick in nuclear capability
  • They say strong U.N. sanctions necessary to stop a possible march toward nukes
  • Writers: U.S. must strengthen ties with S. Korea and Japan and build up its deterrent system


Editor's note: Michael Green is senior vice president for Asia and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and an associate professor at Georgetown University. Zack Cooper is a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a doctoral candidate at Princeton University. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the authors.
(CNN) -- News reports indicate that North Korea may be preparing for a nuclear test, potentially scheduled to coincide with President Obama's visit to South Korea this week.
The North Korean foreign minister warned Tuesday that Obama's trip could "escalate confrontation and bring the dark clouds of a nuclear arms race," prompting speculation that the impulsive young leader of the North, Kim Jong Un, is again crying out for attention.
Typically, experts and government officials refer to these outbursts and nuclear or missile tests as "provocations," which are followed by sanctions, tensions and -- it is hoped -- a return to diplomacy. But by now, it should be obvious that while North Korean behavior appears cyclical ("there they go again"), Pyongyang is on a clear, linear path to developing nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them on target in Japan and eventually the United States.
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North Korea's third and most recent nuclear test, in February 2013, used a relatively small 6- to 9-kiloton plutonium-based nuclear warhead, according to the South Korea Ministry of Defense, roughly half the yield of the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
If North Korea's new test is substantially larger, it will demonstrate that Pyongyang either has mastered the warhead design challenges of plutonium-based weapons or has covertly enriched uranium.
If it is the former case, North Korea will more easily be able to miniaturize its nuclear warhead technology for mating with ballistic missiles. If the latter case, North Korea will probably demonstrate the ability to covertly stockpile large amounts of fissile material, since highly enriched uranium facilities can be more easily hidden underground and North Korea has plenty of uranium mines to obtain the necessary fuel.
Either way, a "new form" of North Korean nuclear test would signal a substantial increase in the country's nuclear capabilities and not just another provocation requiring a short-term punishment from the international community.
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North Korea nuclear test 'quite likely'
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See baby photos of Kim Jong Un
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South: N. Korea prepping for nuclear test
The United States and its allies and partners would no doubt seek to place additional sanctions on North Korea through the United Nations, if such a test were to occur. However, given current tensions with Russia, as well as Chinese concern about North Korean stability, it is unlikely that the U.N. Security Council would approve substantial new sanctions. Yet, deterring North Korea is critical. What more could be done?
First, if the United States cannot win substantial new sanctions at the U.N., it should take additional steps in concert with South Korea, Japan and other allies and partners to squeeze the North's ability to import or export dangerous materials related to their missile and nuclear programs.
Additional sanctions should target North Korean use of international banks to conduct illicit activities. Although some of these institutions have been targeted (most notably Banco Delta Asia in 2005), more can be done to cut North Korea off from its international financing. A coalition of like-minded states could also agree to inspect any and all ships or planes that have departed from North Korea in the previous six months. This same coalition would work together to pressure Beijing to increase inspections and cut off illicit banking activities with North Korea.
Moving China to action has usually been a challenge, but additional North Korean provocations and Kim Jong Un's execution of his uncle and China's contact in Pyongyang, Jang Song Thaek, could motivate China to take steps, particularly once it is clear that the U.S. is no longer willing to rely on the Security Council for another round of weak sanctions.
Second, the U.S. should respond to any North Korean test by increasing cooperation trilaterally with Japan and South Korea. Although South Korea-Japan relations have been at a low point, the United States has spearheaded efforts to make progress in the bilateral relationship in recent months. Obama's visit to both countries will surely touch on this issue, but a North Korean provocation could help him drive Japan and South Korea toward closer cooperation, particularly on intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance; missile defense; and logistics.
This would not only improve U.S.-Japan-South Korea cooperation but could also deter additional provocative actions and put pressure on Chinese leaders to restrain their North Korean ally. In December 2010, the U.S., Japan and South Korea came very close to issuing a joint collective security statement, declaring that an attack by the North on any of us would be an attack on all of us, after the North sank a South Korean vessel and shelled civilians on a South Korean-held island. That high bar could become achievable again.
Third, the United States should bolster its extended deterrent framework -- or nuclear umbrella -- in East Asia. Today, some question U.S. willpower in the face of threats in the Asia Pacific region, particularly after the uncertain U.S. responses to aggression in Syria and Ukraine. A North Korean nuclear test would require the U.S. to make unambiguous statements about the defense of our allies and follow through with demonstrations of American capability, including deployments of assets like the B-2 bomber to Guam and increased exercises with Japan and Korea.
North Korea is estimated to have enough fissile material now for between six and 12 nuclear weapons and is working hard on miniaturization and longer-range ballistic missiles capable of hitting not only Japan but someday, potentially, the United States. At this rate, it will not be long before an American president is going to ask his staff who let North Korea develop the ability to threaten the United States with impunity and why more wasn't done to stop the North.
We know that diplomacy has failed to knock the North off its goal and that a military strike would risk dangerous retaliation against Japan and Korea. But in between war and diplomacy, we have a range of options that could constrict the North's program and buy us time until the threat can be removed peacefully through diplomacy or collapse of the onerous regime in Pyongyang.
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