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Clouds hover over the Syrian capital, Damascus, Thursday, Feb. 25, 2016.(Photo: Hassan Ammar, AP)
The United States and Russia brokered a<span style="color: Red;">*</span>temporary cease-fire between forces loyal to the Syrian government and Western-backed rebels trying to overthrow it<span style="color: Red;">*</span>that is scheduled to begin at midnight Friday, local Damascus time.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>The 5-year-old war in Syria<span style="color: Red;">*</span>has killed about<span style="color: Red;">*</span>470,000<span style="color: Red;">*</span>people and displaced 11 million, creating a refugee crisis in Europe.
The terms
The agreement, called a "cessation of hostilities,"<span style="color: Red;">*</span>should stop the fighting between those parties<span style="color: Red;">*</span>and allow aid groups to deliver humanitarian supplies and services to areas that have been besieged by government forces backed with Russian airstrikes. The agreement does not apply to the<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Islamic State, also known as ISIL or ISIS, or the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front terrorist groups. It also<span style="color: Red;">*</span>does not impact airstrikes against those two militant groups conducted<span style="color: Red;">*</span>by Syria, Russia and the U.S.-led coalition.
Secretary of State John Kerry told the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Thursday that the agreement has already allowed five or six Syrian communities to receive 114 trucks carrying assistance and that 80,000 people now have supplies for a month that they did not have a week ago.
The truce is needed before U.N.-led peace talks can resume in Geneva. Indirect talks earlier this month quickly<span style="color: Red;">*</span>collapsed because of increased violence and a Russian-backed government offensive in Aleppo, near the Turkish border.
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Kerry warns of 'Plan B' in Syria if cease-fire fails
Secretary of State John Kerry speaks before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington DC, Feb. 25, 2016.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Mark Wilson, Getty Images)
How likely is it to hold?
Even if Syria’s warring factions stop fighting, it’s unclear if they will agree to implement the political process that is supposed to follow the cease-fire. The process calls for elections in six months, but the role of Syrian President Bashar Assad and whether he will take part is not spelled out.
Kerry said the cease-fire is an opportunity to test<span style="color: Red;">*</span>the seriousness of Assad and his Russian allies<span style="color: Red;">*</span>to implement elections and an inclusive government. And if that doesn’t happen, the United States will consider other options, Kerry said. He said<span style="color: Red;">*</span>the opposition will not stop fighting if Assad does not leave office.
What if it doesn’t?
If the cease-fire doesn’t hold, the political process doesn’t proceed, and the fighting could get worse. More than a dozen countries have sent armies and militias to fight in Syria.
USA TODAY
A mind-boggling stew of nations is fighting in Syria's civil war
“If they’re not serious then we’re going to have come here and talk about whatever a Plan B is going to be,” Kerry said Tuesday before the<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Recent gains made by Syrian Kurds against the Islamic State<span style="color: Red;">*</span>has also raised tensions with Turkey, Syria’s northern neighbor, which has fought for decades against a Kurdish separatist insurgency.
While the U.S. supports those Kurds in their fight against the Islamic State, Turkey, a NATO ally, considers many of the Syrian Kurdish militia to be terrorist organizations tied to that insurgency, Kerry said.
“Going forward we have to be very careful a different problem is not created by our short-term interest in working with the Kurds against ISIS,” he said.
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