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Drug trafficker Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman is escorted to a helicopter by Mexican security forces at Mexico's International Airport in Mexico City on Feb. 22, 2014.(Photo: Susana Gonzalez, Bloomberg)
Murders in Mexico fell for a third straight year in 2014 — the most pronounced declines occurring along the U.S. border — a sign the country is slowly stabilizing after gruesome drug wars.
There were 15,649 people murdered in Mexico in 2014, a 13.8% reduction from the previous year and down from a peak of 22,480 in 2011, according to a report set to be released Thursday by the University of San Diego's Justice in Mexico Project.
The reductions were steeper along the U.S.-Mexican border. Five of the six Mexican states that border the USA reported a combined drop of 17.7% in the number of homicides.
"These data really help to underscore that we're talking about a sea change in violence," said David Shirk, co-author of the report and director of the Justice in Mexico Project, a U.S.-based initiative to protect human rights south of the border. "You still have elevated levels of crime, so we still have a long way to go. But there is improvement, and we have to acknowledge that improvement and understand why it's happening so we can try to further it."
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The reduction in homicides does not mean Mexico has completely solved its security problems. Maureen Meyer, senior associate for Mexico at the Washington Office on Latin America, said Mexicans still face extremely high levels of kidnappings, extortion and other violent crimes.
American travelers have also been attacked. The U.S. State Department issued a warning April 13 that said U.S. citizens continue to be victims of carjackings, robberies and other violent crimes.
Meyer said the overall reduction in murders is an encouraging trend that allows Mexican officials time to cement improvements in the judicial system, anti-corruption programs and police practices. She said the government must "make sure that the space opened by having less violence leads to structural changes to Mexico's institutions to guarantee a strong rule of law in the future."
Mexico became home to a bloody, nationwide drug war after then-President Felipe Calderón announced in December 2006 that the government would crack down on drug cartels and go after its leaders. The United States agreed to help, and Congress has sent $2.3 billion to Mexico since 2008 to train police and buy new aircraft, scanners, X-Ray machines and nearly 400 canines that can detect drugs, weapons and explosives.
The strategy seemed to work. Calderón's administration boasted several high-profile successes, capturing or killing the heads of different cartels. But the unexpected consequence was an explosion of violence throughout the country as lower-level cartel members fought to fill the power vacuum.
At least 138,000 people have been murdered in Mexico since the end of 2006, according to the report.
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When President Enrique Peña Nieto took office in December 2012, he continued going after cartel leaders, most notably capturing Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, the biggest drug supplier to the USA, last year. Shirk said the violence that usually follows such high-profile arrests has not materialized in recent years.
Meyer said some cartels appear to have negotiated deals to split up the lucrative smuggling routes into the USA.
Shirk said the gradual degradation of cartels could play a role. The Sinaloa Cartel reigns over northwestern Mexico, and Shirk said it may have become so entrenched in its position that rivals are no longer trying to overtake it.
"It could be that this conflict between organized crime groups has burned itself out," Shirk said. "There's really not too many people left to fight."
Other findings in the report:
• The number of Mexican mayors and ex-mayors killed was down to six in 2014, compared with 12 the previous year and as high as 17 in 2010.
• Violence increased against journalists. There were 17 murders in 2014, up from seven in 2013. The worst year for journalists came in 2011, when 19 were murdered.
• For the second straight year, no individual city reached 1,000 murders. Cities such as Juárez and Acapulco regularly topped 1,000 murders a year during the peak of the drug wars. Acapulco had the highest tally of any city in 2014, with 590 murders.
The report is based on a collection of data from the Mexican government, private companies and media organizations that track homicides in Mexico.
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