Luke Skywalker
Super Moderator
{vb:raw ozzmodz_postquote}:
A supporter holds a foam finger sign promoting Donald Trump during a primary night rally on Feb. 9, 2016, in Manchester, N.H.(Photo: David Goldman, AP)
This may take awhile.
Victories by Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders in the New Hampshire primary Tuesday, so decisive they were projected by the Associated Press and the TV networks the moment the polls closed, demonstrated beyond any doubt how dissatisfied voters are with the political status quo and how deeply split both the Democratic and Republican parties are.
What the results in New Hampshire and in Iowa last week didn't resolve with any certainty, however, was which candidate ultimately will prevail for the nominations, or even what sort of electoral coalition each party is likely to forge in November.
USA TODAY
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire Democratic primary.
USA TODAY
Trump wins N.H. GOP primary, Kasich is second
Neither winner of the first contests in Iowa — Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton — won the second one.
Now the most unconventional presidential contest in a generation heads to different regions, bigger states, a faster pace and a larger field of candidates on the Republican side than usually survives past this point. Next up: Nevada and South Carolina.
In a race as fluid as this one, why would anyone drop out before they absolutely had to?
“This is the most unpredictable election that I have ever seen,” Arizona Sen. John McCain, a candidate himself in unpredictable Republican nomination battles in 2000 and 2008, said in a session with reporters on the news site sidewire.com. Democratic strategist Robert Shrum, who has helped run a string of presidential campaigns, said in an interview, “This is not like anything I’ve ever seen, to be honest.”
When their candidacies were launched last year, the suggestion that New Hampshire Republicans would support a real-estate mogul and reality-TV star — a contender who not only has never run for office before but also hasn’t voted in a Republican primary in decades — would have seemed fanciful. Predictions that New Hampshire Democrats would back a 74-year-old senator who had never actually belonged to the Democratic Party would have seemed equally unlikely.
But both Trump and Sanders have tapped into a strong sense that the United States has gotten seriously off track, that Wall Street controls Washington, that their families are threatened in an increasingly dangerous world, and that the concept of the American dream is now more history lesson than reality for kids today.
People cheer polling results at a primary-night watch party for Bernie Sanders on Feb. 9, 2016, in Concord, N.H.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Spencer Platt, Getty Images)
The economy was the top concern in both parties, according to surveys of voters as they left polling places. That was especially true of Democrats, where a third of voters cited income inequality in particular as their top issue — Sanders has been hammering that — and another third cited the economy in general.
Trump drew support not only from reliable Republicans but also from those who aren’t, a sign that the billionaire businessman could reshape the GOP if he ends up as its nominee. He drew the largest share in field of those who were voting for in the Republican primary for the first time. He won the most independents. He drew strong support among voters with less education and lower incomes, not always GOP supporters.
Nearly half of Republican voters said they were looking for a candidate “outside the political establishment,” and a similar number said they felt “betrayed” by the GOP. Both groups backed Trump over any of his rivals.
By more than 2-1, they agreed with one of Trump’s most controversial proposals, to ban all Muslims from entering the United States.
Trump’s coalition was starkly different from those who backed his more establishment rivals. Second-place<span style="color: Red;">*</span>finisher John Kasich<span style="color: Red;">*</span>drew support among those who opposed banning all Muslims from entering the United States — perhaps Trump’s most controversial proposal — and among moderates and highly educated voters. He did well among those looking for a candidate with experience rather than an outsider.
CINCINNATI.COM
John Kasich finishes 2nd in New Hampshire primary, vaulting to prominence in GOP race
Kasich and others vying for mainstream support, including former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, finished far behind Trump but within a few percentage points of one another. That means none of them seems likely to suspend their campaigns before the next set of contests — good news for Trump by splintering the voters who don’t support him.
(Big contributors may have something to say about that, though. “How do seven or eight candidates keep getting their donors to re-up?” Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union, asked in an interview. “Here’s really the question: What states are you going to win?”)
On the Democratic side, too, Sanders and Clinton offered different visions of the party. Sanders carried younger voters under 30 overwhelmingly, by 5-1; Clinton carried seniors 65 and older by double digits. Sanders won most of the liberals; Clinton won most of the moderates. Sanders won among the lowest-income voters; Clinton won among the most affluent ones. Sanders carried independent voters by 3-1.
And in a critical question, four in 10 Democratic voters said they wanted to continue President Obama’s policies, which has been Clinton’s stance, but another four in 10 said they wanted to pursue more liberal ones. That’s been Sanders’ battle cry.
The next three weeks will be crucial. On the Democratic side, the Nevada caucuses are next, in 10 days. The Sanders campaign sees that as a prime opportunity in the challenge to Clinton, who had been viewed initially as the all-but-inevitable nominee.
“We’re trying to win Nevada,” said Sanders strategist Tad Devine. “A ‘rigged economy’ resonates with extraordinary power<span style="color: Red;">*</span>in Nevada,” in a state where many communities still haven’t recovered from the housing market meltdown that hit in 2008. He said the senator also was making “enormous progress” with the Latinos who are a significant political force in the Silver State. “This is a story — the son of an immigrant — that impacts the agenda of people who are trying to make a life here.”
USA TODAY
Elections 2016 | USA TODAY Network
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYWhy New Hampshire voters went for Bernie Sanders | 02:20Bernie Sanders supporters in New Hampshire tell us why they voted for the Senator from Vermont over rival Hillary Clinton and how gender didn't play a role. JESS ALOE and RYAN MERCER/FREE PRESS
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYNew Hampshire voters: Why we picked Bernie Sanders | 00:42Bernie Sanders has won the New Hampshire Democratic primary. New Hampshire voters reveal what they like about the candidate. VPC
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYDonald Trump wins New Hampshire Republican primary | 00:23Donald Trump is projected to win the New Hampshire Republican primary election after coming in second at the Iowa caucuses.
Video provided by Newsy Newslook
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYNew Hampshire voters: Why we picked Bernie Sanders | 00:42Bernie Sanders has won the New Hampshire Democratic primary. New Hampshire voters reveal what they like about the candidate. VPC
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYBernie Sanders wins New Hampshire Democratic primary | 00:20Sanders' win is not a huge surprise; he was leading Hillary Clinton by double digits going into primary voting.
Video provided by Newsy Newslook
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYHillary Clinton: I know I have work to do after primary | 01:51Even after losing to Bernie Sanders in the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton promised supporters to take her fight for the nomination to the rest of the country. She spoke at a rally in Hooksett. (Feb. 9) AP
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYCarly Fiorina: 'Fight with me, vote for me' | 01:26Republican presidential candidate Carly Fiorina spoke to supporters following the results of the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday and asked them to continue to stand with her. (Feb. 9) AP
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYVoters head to polls for New Hampshire primary | 00:49New Hampshire voters continued to head to the polls on Tuesday as the state's primary election gets under way.
Video provided by AFP Newslook
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYCruz meets with NH voters on primary day | 00:32Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz walked the streets of Londonderry, New Hampshire on Tuesday talking to voters as polls were open for the presidential primary. (Feb. 9) AP
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYRubio: 'We Feel Real Good' About N.H. Primary | 01:07As voters continued casting ballots in New Hampshire's first in the nation primary Tuesday, Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio greeted supporters outside a high school in Windham and said he felt good about the state of his campaign. (Feb AP
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYHuge pig visits polling station in New Hampshire | 00:38Huge pig visits polling station in New Hampshire. Video by Dennis Comeau. Dennis Comeau
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYIowa, New Hampshire Shouldn't Come First | 01:26Florida's primaries in the 2016 presidential election are scheduled to take place on Tuesday, March 15.And there's a very good chance that it won't have much ? if any ? bearing on who is ultimately nominated by the Democratic and Republican partie Wochit
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYRaw: NH Voters Make Last Minute Decisions | 01:50Voters in Nashua, New Hampshire cast their ballots in the nation's first primary contest. Many of them heading to the ballot booth still weighing which candidate to support. (Feb 9.) AP
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYBush Speaks With Voters in New Hampshire | 01:04Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush speaks with voters outside of Webster Elementary School in Manchester, New Hampshire. (Feb. 9) AP
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYRaw: New Hampshire Voters Hit the Polls | 01:51All eyes are on New Hampshire as voters cast their ballots in the first of the nation primary. (Feb. 9) AP
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYTiny NH town prepares to cast first primary votes | 00:43Residents of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire got ready to cast their ballots at midnight in the nation's first 2016 presidential primary. The polls will close almost immediately after the nine registered voters in town have voted. (Feb. 8) AP
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYBernie Sanders rallies voters for New Hampshire primary | 01:31Bernie Sanders talks about wages and education while campaigning in New Hampshire just before the state's primary election. VPC
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARYNew Hampshire: How Much Does It Matter to GOP Race? | 10:15Feb 8 -- Former John McCain and George W. Bush adviser Juleanna Glover and Marco Rubio supporter Susan Duprey discuss Donald Trump and the state of the Republican and Democratic races in New Hampshire on "With All Due Respect." Bloomberg
Last VideoNext Video
A week later, on Feb. 27, Democrats hold their primary in South Carolina. The Clinton campaign describes the Palmetto State, where African-American voters make up a majority of the Democratic electorate, as a firewall she is all but sure to win. She and husband Bill Clinton have deep roots in the black community. Sanders has begun to cultivate them, emphasizing his work in the civil rights movement in the 1960s.
On the Republican side, the South Carolina primary is next, in 10 days — the first Southern contest in a party that has a Southern base, and a region where Texas Sen. Cruz has built a deep organization and could be a good fit. Since it moved to up in the calendar in 1980, the state’s primary has been won by the ultimate Republican nominee every year except one, in 2012. The GOP caucuses in Nevada follow three days later.
Then, Super Tuesday is on March 1. Fourteen states will hold contests, including a swath of primaries across the Sunbelt, in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. There also are other contests in Massachusetts, Minnesota and Sanders’ home state of<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Vermont.
At that point, more than a fourth of the Democratic convention delegates and nearly a third of the Republican convention delegates will have been elected. By then, said GOP lawyer Ben Ginsberg, a campaign veteran, it should be clear whether someone is the all-but-certain nominee — or if next summer might bring the first contested national convention in decades.
USA TODAY
A contested GOP convention — political junkie's dream, politico's nightmare
“Together we have sent a message that will echo from Wall Street to Washington, from Maine to California,” Sanders declared to a rally of triumphant supporters.
“Wow, wow, wow," Trump told his own cheering rally a few minutes later. “We are going to win in South Carolina.”
[h=2]The Next Chapter[/h]Saturday, Feb. 20
Nevada caucuses – Democrat
South Carolina primary – Republican
Tuesday, Feb. 23
Nevada caucuses – Republican
Saturday, Feb. 27
South Carolina primary – Democrat
Tuesday, March 1 – Super Tuesday
Alabama primary
Alaska caucuses
American Samoa caucuses – Democrat
Arkansas primary
Colorado caucuses
Georgia primary
Massachusetts primary
Minnesota caucuses
North Dakota caucuses - Republican
Oklahoma primary
Tennessee primary
Texas primary
Vermont primary
Virginia primary
Wyoming caucuses – Republican
Powered By WizardRSS.com | Full Text RSS Feed