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Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton makes her way to the stage after being introduced at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner on Saturday, Oct. 24, 2015, in Des Moines, Iowa.(Photo: Bryon Houlgrave/The Register)
DES MOINES, Iowa —It's hard to foresee a result other than the Hillary Clinton juggernaut winning Iowa unless something major blows up in the presidential race, Democratic activists say.
As another pivot point approaches in the form of Saturday's nationally televised debate in Iowa, Clinton has an enviably strong polling position, a money edge, a determined organizing crew, perceived depth on issues and the power of the establishment behind her.
"Right now, the overall Democratic dynamic seems pretty clear, and the momentum is with Hillary," political strategist David Axelrod told The Des Moines Register. "A win in Iowa effectively could augur an early end to the nominating fight."
But runner-up Bernie Sanders' organizational footprint in Iowa is now as large as Clinton's: Both have more than 75 staffers working from 20 offices. And his backers say the national media narrative that he may have peaked will only fuel them to fight harder.
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"What I hear is that Hillary has the momentum. What I see on the ground is that Bernie has the momentum," said Ray Zirkelbach, a former state legislator from Monticello who hasn't endorsed but says he's leaning heavily toward Sanders.
Clinton has the establishment, but Sanders has a swath of progressives — "old hippies," the Millennials and the "video game generation" — and his magnetism will draw "new people to the game," Zirkelbach said.
Three Democratic candidates will compete in the CBS News/KCCI/Des Moines Register debate at Drake University on Saturday night. Since the Democrats' first debate 3½ weeks ago, the table has been re-set. Underdogs Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb have dropped out, and the specter of an extra podium no longer exists now that Vice President Joe Biden has opted not to make a last-minute plunge into the race.
The lone severe underdog is Martin O'Malley, who is "still mired in the Land of the Statistically Insignificant," Axelrod said. "Without a miraculous turnaround, his time and money may well run out."
Knocking Clinton out of a nomination win would likely take a bombshell, such as some sort of major new accusation uncovered by the FBI about her use of a private email server while she was secretary of state, Iowa Democrats said.
"I think she'd have to be indicted. It would be something criminal; otherwise, they're going to be able to weather it," said state Sen. Tony Bisignano, a Des Moines Democrat who backed a Biden bid and is now without a favorite candidate. "They have the money and the organization to withstand anything. They're the Clintons."
OTHERS HOPE FOR BREAKTHROUGHS
Iowans who back Sanders, a Vermont U.S. senator, and O'Malley, a former Maryland governor, are holding out hope that a big moment in Saturday's debate will reroute the course of the race for their candidate.
"Something monumental would need to occur at this point," said Grant Woodard, an Iowa Democratic strategist who is unaffiliated with any campaign. "(Clinton) is clearly ascending rapidly."
The Iowa debate will be "the last truly important event for Iowa Democrats this caucus season," Woodard predicted.
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"With the calendar being what it is, we are going to soon enter a period where the rank-and-file caucusgoers are about to become more concerned with Thanksgiving and Christmas and begin to tune out until January," he said. "If Sanders or O'Malley is going to significantly change the dynamic of the race, this needs to be the place."
More than half of Democratic likely caucusgoers in early October said they're not locked in on a candidate yet: 42% said their mind was made up, while 58% said they could still be persuaded to support another candidate, a Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll found.
But more recent polls in Iowa are showing Clinton pulling further ahead of Sanders.
Iowa Democrats say there's a sense Clinton has passed a test, with her calm demeanor during the 11-hour congressional hearing on the Benghazi attack and her show of force at the Jefferson Jackson dinner in Des Moines, chased by the feat of organizing 150 Iowa house parties to celebrate her birthday.
During Clinton's 2008 presidential bid, everything in Hillaryworld was super-sized, with hundreds of aides on payroll. This time, the campaign has more volunteers, and Iowans have been organizing more deeply and for a longer period, insiders said.
"Her campaign is better this cycle," said unaffiliated strategist Jeff Link of Des Moines.
CLINTON DOING MORE INTERACTION
A very long summer campaign season for Clinton was capped by an outdoor event on a 75-degree day in November in Iowa, where Clinton displayed sure-footedness in tackling even the most obscure questions posed to her in Q&A sessions, her backers say.
Iowans at the Coralville event last week quizzed Clinton on everything from Islamic terrorists to small rural school consolidation. When one audience member asked about unexploded land mines in Laos, she shared facts, off the top of her head, for four minutes.
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"Laos is the most-bombed nation in the history of the world," she said. "More ordnance was dropped on Laos during the Vietnam War by us than was dropped in any other conflict."
Just the fact that Clinton answered 13 audience questions was noteworthy, said undecided voter Ed Fallon, a former Des Moines state legislator who describes himself as a progressive populist.
"That wouldn't have happened a few months ago," Fallon said.
Another change: Clinton has long had the reputation as the stand-offish, impersonable Democrat in the race, but now it's Sanders who comes across as indifferent or rushed, Fallon said.
"Sure, he gets around and has huge crowds, but there's a lot of grumbling that he just doesn't get the importance of taking time to meet and greet, to answer questions one-on-one, and to show that he cares about people in an up-close, personal way," Fallon said. "I hear that from a lot of people."
Still, Fallon said, Sanders excites a broad range of voters beyond the usual Democratic caucusgoer, and polls could easily seesaw to favor Sanders again.
EMBRACING IDEA OF FEMALE PRESIDENT
Another factor powering support for Clinton is the notion of female leadership in the White House — and the idea that Iowa could be the state that not only launched the first black president, but also catapults the first female president into the Oval Office, several Democrats said.
"At events I've covered, the decibel level increases dramatically for Hillary Clinton when she puts gender in play," said Douglas Burns, co-owner and columnist with the Carroll Daily Times Herald newspaper. "Plenty of Iowa women left Clinton for Obama, but it would be hard to betray their break-the-glass-ceiling instincts twice."
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Clinton's backers say they aren't certain that she'll win Iowa, but they're hopeful.
"We are working our tails off every day fighting for every vote," said Jerry Crawford, a Des Moines lawyer and Democratic fundraiser who has endorsed Clinton. "We may be pleased with the current state of the race, but we are the furthest thing from over-confident."
Debates are more impromptu and conversational than podium speeches, a high-pressure setting where Clinton shines, her backers said.
"Nothing else is as likely to effect change as the debates," Crawford said.
Woodard said Clinton's biggest challenge in Iowa in coming weeks could be keeping her people energized and fighting apathy of supporters who aren't convinced their presence will be necessary on the night of the caucuses.
Their absence could "hand a gift to other campaigns," he said, "particularly the Sanders camp."
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