Luke Skywalker
Super Moderator
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New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks to the media at the 3rd Annual Lincoln-Reagan Dinner on Feb. 16, 2015, in Concord, N.H.(Photo: Mary Schwalm, AP)
To use a Jersey Shore expression, Gov. Chris Christie is getting boiled by a big wave.
At one time considered a possible front-runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, Christie now lags behind potential rival Jeb Bush in signing up major donors. His poll numbers are poor. His history of accepting gifts and travel has been documented in the media. Videos of his hijinks in the Dallas Cowboys owners' box circulate on social media, and not in a good way.
Is Christie's all-but-declared presidential bid already toast? Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire might well point out that their voters have a say in that — and the retail politicking that characterizes the early-state contests plays to Christie's strength: authenticity.
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"It's too early to say (candidates) are bringing too much baggage and New Hampshire's not going to give them a look,'' says Donnalee Lozeau, former state House majority leader and now mayor of Nashua. "In New Hampshire, people want to meet you and hear from you and don't necessarily believe everything they read.''
To win the Iowa caucuses, "It takes money, but it's not the end-all-be-all,'' says Craig Robinson, a political activist who runs The Iowa Republican news site.
In 2012, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum won a 34-vote victory in the Iowa caucuses over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, despite being widely outspent. "You've got to have enough money to spend 50-60 days here, you're going to have to hire staff obviously, to use that time well, and maybe (run) a mix of advertising,'' Robinson says. "But I don't think that just because you have the most money, you win. In Iowa, it's a place where the fundraising reports don't matter.''
Christie has yet to announce a super PAC to collect unlimited donations to fund a 2016 bid. Bush, who is Christie's presumed rival for moderate GOP voters with appeal to independents, has scooped up millions. Billionaire Home Depot founder Ken Langone is supporting Christie, but other big GOP donors are negative.
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"Gov. Christie is a great man, but he's got some baggage," says Stanley Hubbard, a Minnesota media magnate who is giving $50,000 to a super PAC backing Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Hubbard noted both the controversy over Bridgegate, a politically motivated traffic jam on the George Washington Bridge, and news reports that Christie accepted thousands of dollars' worth of trips paid for by the Jordanian government, which is not prohibited by New Jersey ethics requirements because of a bill Christie signed in 2010. "You really don't want that kind of baggage when you are running a campaign," he said.
"It's far too early to write him off,'' says political commentator Stu Rothenberg of the nonpartisan Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report. "But he has lots to prove during the campaign.''
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks at the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce's Walk to Washington event at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel on Feb. 19, 2015, in Washington.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Kevin Wolf, AP)
SKETCHY POLLING
With the first contests almost a year away, opinion polls are sketchy predictors of what voters will actually do, since they don't appear to know the candidates particularly well.
In a CBS News poll released Thursday, Jeb Bush came out on top, with 49% of Republicans saying they would vote for him for president. But 25% said they didn't know enough about Bush to decide, and that number was higher for all other potential candidates.
Christie came in 9th out of 11 potential candidates, with 28% saying they would vote for him, 43% saying they would not vote for him, and 29% saying they didn't know enough to say.
Christie and Bush have hired staff in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Unlike Bush, Christie has made repeated trips to the states, first in his role as chairman of the Republican Governors Association and just this month as a proto-candidate. Bush was last in Iowa shortly before the 2012 election, addressing the Sioux City Chamber of Commerce. His first trip will be March 7, when he and Christie are among the speakers at the Iowa Agricultural Summit. Bush plans a two-day trip to New Hampshire on March 13.
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The contests in the early states play to Christie's strength: his love of retail politicking. Jacket off, microphone in hand, Christie has engaged in Q&As with voters at 127 town hall meetings since becoming governor in 2009 — many of which have given rise to "YouTube moments" promoted by his staff. He'll hold his 128th meeting Wednesday in Moorestown, N.J.
Juliana Bergeron, a Republican National Committee member from New Hampshire, sat next to Christie at his appearance at the Merrimack County Lincoln-Reagan dinner last week. "It just feels like he's a person who's comfortable in his own skin and he makes people around him feel comfortable,'' she said.
Bush, whose speeches lean toward cerebral, may pale in comparison. "I do think he needs to worry about that. That's what hurt Romney,'' Bergeron says. "He was just such a gentleman on that stage they didn't see his passion. With Christie, you're going to see the passion. Anybody who wants to compete with that needs to show that.''
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie waves after speaking at the Freedom Summit, on Jan. 24, 2015, in Des Moines, Iowa.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Charlie Neibergall, AP)
A TOWN HALL CANDIDACY?
Mike DuHaime, Christie's political adviser, says writing off Christie is "foolish.'' The governor is "the only potential candidate with a history of winning repeatedly in a solidly Democrat state and winning voters that are traditionally unreceptive to Republicans.'' In New Hampshire, unaffiliated voters can vote in the GOP primary.
DuHaime wouldn't comment on reports that Christie plans soon to hold town halls in New Hampshire. "Any speculation on tactics is premature, but he has done nearly 130 town halls in New Jersey, so many see that as part of his natural strength in a state that values direct communication with voters.''
If Christie succeeds on the trail, money will follow, Bergeron says. "There's still a lot more money out there and it can shift later if the people shift.''
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Comparing donors is not a preoccupation of voters, says Kerry Marsh, Concord, N.H., Republican chairwoman. Christie's fundraising base is not that big a concern to her. "It's more about what he stands for,'' she says.
In Iowa, "Christie kind of has a leg up when it comes to staffing and relationships you need to be building,'' Robinson says. For one thing, Christie is tight with popular Gov. Terry Branstad. "He's been like Terry Branstad's house band. If Branstad's having a big fundraiser and needs a draw, it's Chris Christie.''
But he needs to hustle, Robinson says. "He has to capitalize on that advantage sooner rather than later.'' And he needs to go to the little towns. "If Chris Christie shows up in some county seat … it's going to be a big event. You need to do that stuff early.''
Ask Mayor Lozeau. Jeb Bush, the son of a president famous for handwritten thank-you notes, hasn't yet been to New Hampshire, but he's been dialing the 603 area code. "Jeb Bush I've already talked to on the phone, because he called,'' says Louzeau, who says she won't endorse in the primary. "It was a courtesy call to let me know he was seriously considering (a 2016 run), he was coming to New Hampshire, he hoped I'd make time to say hello.'' She hasn't yet heard from Christie.
Contributing: Fredreka Schouten
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