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Hillary Clinton greets volunteers at a campaign office in Des Moines on Feb. 1, 2016.(Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images)
DES MOINES —<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Hillary Clinton's bid to keep Bernie Sanders from becoming the Barack Obama of 2016 gets its first big test Monday night as she looks<span style="color: Red;">*</span>to pick up a win in Iowa, which eluded her eight years earlier.
Iowa’s caucuses will test whether the enthusiasm of young, lower-income and more liberal voters lining up behind the Democratic socialist<span style="color: Red;">*</span>from Vermont is a match for Clinton’s sophisticated ground operation and her support from loyal Democratic voters, moderates and particularly women.
If Sanders can re-create the groundswell and historic participation that lifted Obama's campaign in 2008 by bringing new participants into the process, he wins. If not, more reliable caucusgoers are likely to propel Clinton to victory.
“It's really going down to the wire,” Clinton said on ABC News on Monday morning.
The former secretary of State said her campaign has a “much better organization” than it did when she lost to Obama eight years ago. And, she said, “I think I’m a better candidate.”
Sanders implored his backers to show up to caucus on his behalf. "We will struggle tonight if the voter turnout is low. That's a fact,” Sanders said to supporters and volunteers in Des Moines.
A Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics<span style="color: Red;">*</span>poll released Saturday shows the different demographic support for Clinton and Sanders.
Among those under the age of 35, Sanders drew 63%. Clinton does better with more reliable caucusgoers,<span style="color: Red;">*</span>including those over 65. Overall, the poll had Clinton with a narrow lead of 45% to 42% in the final days before the caucus.
Sanders did better among those who have never caucused and independent voters who can’t participate in a Democratic primary unless they change their registration on caucus night.
USA TODAY
O'Malley looks for traction in Democratic race dominated by Clinton, Sanders
Former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley had just 3% support in the poll, raising questions about whether he’ll attain viability in many precincts.
Iowa Democrats have had a better record in picking eventual presidential nominees than Republicans have. Barack Obama in 2008, John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000 all won Iowa en route to the nomination. The past two Iowa winners for the GOP, Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008, ultimately fell short in their bid for the Republican nod.
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The Iowa caucuses: An accident of history
If Sanders loses Iowa, it may prove difficult to recover<span style="color: Red;">*</span>his footing. Though polls favor him to win New Hampshire, which will hold<span style="color: Red;">*</span>a primary <span style="color: Red;">*</span>Feb. 9,<span style="color: Red;">*</span>as the race moves south, starting with South Carolina, Clinton is ahead by a wide margin.
Alternatively, much as Iowa was instrumental to Obama’s path to the nomination, Sanders could deliver a significant blow to Clinton if he’s able to defeat her here. His campaign says a win would generate enough momentum to weather Clinton’s advantage in the states that vote March 1, stretching the competition well into the spring.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders visits his campaign headquarters to thank volunteers on Feb. 1, 2016, in Des Moines.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Evan Vucci, AP)
The race hinges on turnout, which peaked in 2008 at 240,000. Though some models predict Sanders doesn’t have to match that level, he may have to come close <span style="color: Red;">*</span>to beat Clinton. A recent Monmouth University poll, which screened for likely caucusgoers, predicted about 110,000 Democratic voters would show up to caucus. In addition, the Iowa secretary of State’s office does not reflect a similar surge in registrations like it did a month before the 2008 competition.
Unlike the more straightforward Republican caucuses, Democrats use a more interactive and freewheeling approach.
Voters form groups and announce their support for a candidate. If any candidate's group<span style="color: Red;">*</span>does not meet a certain threshold for viability, voters<span style="color: Red;">*</span>can either go home or join another viable candidate’s group.
One advantage Clinton has is that her team has been trained on how to court the supporters of O’Malley. If he cannot meet the viability threshold, his supporters can choose to move over either to Clinton or Sanders, which could prove pivotal<span style="color: Red;">*</span>if the race is as close as polls suggest.
USA TODAY
Iowa caucuses: What's happening right now
USA TODAY
It’s about to get real: What you need to know about the Iowa caucuses
Unlike in 2008, Clinton is far more organized and her support is firm, <span style="color: Red;">*</span>her supporters say.
According to TheDes Moines Register's poll, 83% of her supporters had made up their mind, while 69% of Sanders’ supporters said the same.
“It feels different to me,” said Mark Murphy, 55, a<span style="color: Red;">*</span>retail sales associate who came from San Francisco to knock on doors for her and attended her final rally Sunday night.
“She’s a different person, too,” he said. “She was a great senator, but they still looked at her as Bill’s wife. Now it’s on her own.”
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