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Hurricane Joaquin hovers over the western Atlantic on Wednesday.(Photo: NOAA, EPA)
Hurricane Joaquin's forecasted track appears eerily similar to the one<span style="color: Red;">*</span>catastrophic Sandy took in October 2012. So, should we be worried?
In a word, no. Even though Joaquin is currently in the same part of the Atlantic Ocean as Sandy was and is slamming the Bahamas, the latest forecast Thursday indicates the hurricane<span style="color: Red;">*</span>could be headed out to sea.
Even if it stayed near the coast, Sandy's "wind field" was much larger than Joaquin's. The wind field is the area of tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph.
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Sandy's wind field was roughly 1,000 miles in diameter before hitting New Jersey, while Joaquin's is now roughly 230 miles, the Weather Channel reported.
Sandy's wind field (in orange) was much larger than Joaquin's is today.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: National Hurricane Center / The Weather Channel)
In addition, storm surge did most of the damage with Sandy, while Joaquin's threat appears to be from heavy rain and floods, especially in the Southeast.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Sandy pushed huge mounds of sea water onto the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastlines, doing colossal damage to homes and property.
Torrential rain —<span style="color: Red;">*</span>fueled in part by tropical moisture from<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Joaquin<span style="color: Red;">*</span>—<span style="color: Red;">*</span>will fall over a much larger area and population than Sandy did, according to the Weather Channel.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Catastrophic flooding is possible in the Carolinas and Virginia this weekend, AccuWeather reported.
One similarity between the two storms seems to be a more accurate forecast from the European computer model, one of many<span style="color: Red;">*</span>meteorologists use to forecast the weather. In both storms, the European computer model did a better job of forecasting the actual track of the storm than did the top American model.
In 2012, the European model accurately predicted the unusual left hook that Sandy eventually took into New Jersey. This time around, it<span style="color: Red;">*</span>was the lone model that predicted Joaquin would slide out to sea, as other models are now picking up on. Still, the storm's track could change over the next couple days.
The track of Hurricane Sandy in October 2012.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: AccuWeather)
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