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[h=4]Independent voters to play major — not critical — role in New Hampshire[/h]New Hampshire’s independent voters won’t by themselves determine winners and losers in the state’s primary Tuesday, but they can determine the magnitude of wins, and that could be relevant for Sen. Bernie Sanders.
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Democratic Presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders answered questions in a town hall hosted by CNN in Derry, N.H. on Wednesday night. AP
Hillary Clinton looks on as Gabbu Giffords and her husband, Mark Kelly, speak during a campaign event at Winnacunnet High School in Hampton, N.H., on Feb. 2, 2016.(Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images)
MANCHESTER, N.H. — New Hampshire’s independent voters won’t by themselves determine winners and losers in the state’s first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday.
But those voters, who officially register as “undeclared,” can determine degrees of separation between winners and losers, which could be particularly relevant this year for Sen. Bernie Sanders.
The Vermont independent, running against former secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, leads Clinton 50% to 40%<span style="color: Red;">*</span>among registered Democrats in New Hampshire, according to a recent CNN/WMUR poll. His lead among<span style="color: Red;">*</span>undeclared voters who say they’ll vote in the Democratic primary is much larger — 64% to 27%, according to the poll.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>And he's<span style="color: Red;">*</span>56 points ahead of Clinton among those considered undeclared because they haven’t voted in the last two elections.
USA TODAY
Sanders, Clinton rally New Hampshire backers ahead of Feb. 9 primary
USA TODAY
New Hampshire braced to take center stage in presidential race
“I have never voted in a primary but I’m going to vote in this primary for Bernie,” said Nicky Driscoll, 24, an office supervisor from Manchester<span style="color: Red;">*</span>who thinks Sanders is best suited to get corporate money out of government. “It’s supposed to be for the people, not the Wal-Mart.”
Undeclared voters can vote in either party’s primary here. They represent the state’s largest block of voters but they turn out at lower rates during primaries than registered partisans, according to Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted<span style="color: Red;">*</span>the CNN/WMUR poll. That’s because they tend to be younger and newer to the state and they haven’t had much time to become engaged in politics.
Smith said it's incorrect to define those voters as independent — even though most people in the state do — because they generally align with either Democrats or Republicans and aren’t “up for grabs." Only about 3-5% of them are truly independent and could vote for either a Democrat or a Republican, he said.
They also can't be counted on to propel a candidate to victory. The magnitude of Arizona<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Sen. John McCain's victory in the 2000 state primary was driven by undeclared voters, but his support among registered Republicans would have delivered him a win, anyway, Smith said.
In this year’s Republican contest, undeclared voters aren’t likely to help one candidate more than another, he said.
“Nobody’s ever won their party’s primary here in New Hampshire without winning a plurality of their party’s registered voters,” Smith said. “You’ve got to win your own party’s voters. You can’t rely on independent voters to win anything here.”
Sanders has tried to downplay the high expectations for him in New Hampshire,<span style="color: Red;">*</span>where many say he enjoys a home-field advantage by coming from the state next door. He recalls that Clinton defeated Barack Obama in New Hampshire's 2008<span style="color: Red;">*</span>primary and notes that Clinton<span style="color: Red;">*</span>has “virtually the entire political establishment on her side.”
Bernie Sanders shakes hands with supporters after speaking at the Claremont Opera House on Feb. 2, 2016, in Claremont, N.H.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Matthew Cavanaugh, Getty Images)
“We look forward to winning here but we take nothing, nothing for granted,” he told reporters Tuesday.
Tad Devine, Sanders’ senior media adviser, said Sanders proved in Iowa that he could bring young people into the process and claim their support. He said New Hampshire will test whether he can do the same with independents.
USA TODAY
Clinton, Sanders locked in tight battle in Iowa
“Independents who don’t feel they have a stake in elections because no candidate is speaking to them don’t participate as much as partisans on both sides do,” he said. “If we don’t have a candidate who can not only win support from them, but get their interest and get them involved, then we’re not going to be able to have an advantage over Republicans in the general election.”
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