General view of the downtown Los Angeles skyline.(Photo: Kirby Lee, Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
(NEWSER)<span style="color: Red;">*</span>– NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory is out with a<span style="color: Red;">*</span>
study<span style="color: Red;">*</span>predicting that Los Angeles has a 99.9% chance of experiencing an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.0 or greater within the next two and a half years.
"There’s enough energy stored to produce about a magnitude 6.1 to 6.3 earthquake" with an epicenter in La Habra, which was hit by a quake in 2014, says a JPL geophysicist, per<span style="color: Red;">*</span>
CBS LA. Earthquake scientists used information from the La Habra quake to make their predictions, and found that there's a 35% chance of an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.0 or greater, the<span style="color: Red;">*</span>
Los Angeles Daily News<span style="color: Red;">*</span>reports.
But other experts aren't convinced;<span style="color: Red;">*</span>
KPCC<span style="color: Red;">*</span>goes so far as to call the JPL study "controversial."
As the US Geological Survey notes, "the accepted random chance of a (magnitude 5.0) or greater in this area in three years is 85%, independent of the analysis in this paper." Plus, JPL's research "has not yet been examined by the long-established committees that evaluate earthquake forecasts and predictions made by scientists," the USGS says, per<span style="color: Red;">*</span>
LA Weekly. "The lack of details on the method of analysis makes a critical assessment of this approach very difficult."
And, as one Caltech seismologist who read the study notes, "As far as I’m concerned there has never been a successful earthquake prediction, and a scientific breakthrough would be required for us to make a scientifically based prediction." But, he adds, since earthquakes tend to cluster, it's not much of a stretch to assume there will be another one in La Habra. (
Only a single survivor remains<span style="color: Red;">*</span>from another California earthquake.)
This story originally appeared on Newser.
NEWSER
NASA Releases New Study That Might Worry Los Angeles Residents
Newser<span style="color: Red;">*</span>is a USA TODAY content partner providing general news, commentary and coverage from around the Web. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.
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