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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks to his Likud Party faithful in a campaign stop in Netanya, north of Tel Aviv, on March 11, 2015.(Photo: Jim Hollander, European Pressphoto Agency)
JERUSALEM — Hard-line Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is fighting for his political life this weekend, as a rival aided by a former consultant to President Obama threatens to oust the long-serving Israeli leader in Tuesday's parliamentary election.
Polls show a coalition led by Isaac Herzog clinging to a small lead over Netanyahu's right-wing Likud Party.
USA TODAY
Israelis react: 'Netanyahu knows how to give a speech'
So far, bread-and-butter issues, which favor Herzog's center-left Zionist Union coalition, appear to be trumping security concerns that play to Netanyahu's strengths as the nation's protector.
"People want change. They're talking about social and economic issues," said pollster Rafi Smith. "These issues are having more weight than in any other election."
Netanyahu's controversial March 3 speech to the U.S. Congress, where he assailed President Obama's efforts to cut a deal curbing Iran's nuclear program, failed to give him much of a boost at home. A Channel 10 poll showed Likud got a 2-percentage-point bump after his dramatic speech, but it quickly evaporated.
A supporter takes a selfie with Israeli Labor Party leader and co-leader of the Zionist Union, Isaac Herzog, during his campaign visit to southern coastal Israeli city of Ashdod on March 13, 2015.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Jack Guez, AFP/Getty Images)
Herzog's coalition could win 26 of the 120 seats in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, just ahead of Likud, which is seen winning 22, according to poll results in the Yediot Ahronot newspaper on Friday. Other polls had similar results.
Who winds up as prime minister is not only of high interest to Israelis but to Washington, which has a big stake in the outcome. That is evidenced by the significant role U.S. campaign consultants have been playing in the election: Democrats, including former campaign aide Jeremy Bird, are working with a non-profit group trying to oust Netanyahu and elect a more liberal government, while Republican political consultants who have worked for Senate leaders are advising Netanyahu.
Wealthy American donors played a role in the primaries, where Democrats helped Herzog's coalition, and Republicans backed Netanyahu.
USA TODAY
American advisers, money shape Israel's election
Netanyahu and Obama have had strained relations not only over Iran's nuclear program, but also over the prime minister's tough stance in advancing peace talks with the Palestinians. By contrast, Republicans in Congress share Netanyahu's concerns that Obama will strike a weak deal with Iran that allows the avowed enemy of Israel to develop nuclear weapons that could destroy the Jewish state.
The close race between Herzog, 54, and Netanyahu, 65, isn't what the prime minister expected last year when he prematurely dissolved his government and called for new elections. He thought Likud would easily win.
Even if Herzog's Zionist Union coalition comes out on top, he isn't assured the prime minister's seat under Israel's electoral system. He still will need to cobble together a majority of 61 seats to form a coalition government.
Gadi Wolfsfeld, a political science professor at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, attributed Herzog's strong showing to national dissatisfaction with the status quo.
"Netanyahu has been in power for quite a few years, and I don't think anyone's happy with the way the country is going," he said. He pointed to frequent wars, intermittent terrorism and inequality, both economic and social.
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Isaac Herzog, the soft-spoken opposition leader, is looking to unseat three-term Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
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