Luke Skywalker
Super Moderator
{vb:raw ozzmodz_postquote}:
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., introduces Hillary Clinton at a town hall meeting at the Rochester Opera House on Jan. 22, 2016, in Rochester, N.H.(Photo: Darren McCollester, Getty Images)
MANCHESTER, N.H. — Just like Iowans, New Hampshire voters have been inundated with campaign ads and visits from presidential candidates. And once the Iowa caucus results are in, they know<span style="color: Red;">*</span>the national<span style="color: Red;">*</span>spotlight will shift<span style="color: Red;">*</span>to the Granite State, which holds<span style="color: Red;">*</span>the first-in-the-nation primary on Feb. 9.
"Our phone rings off the hook all day," said Tyler Isabelle, 21, an employee at<span style="color: Red;">*</span>The Red Arrow Diner, a frequent stop for candidates. "Robots and real people, all day and night. Everyone wants to know who everyone's voting for."
Both contests are critically important for the momentum they give — or deny —<span style="color: Red;">*</span>candidates hoping to remain<span style="color: Red;">*</span>competitive later. Since 1976, when Iowa's caucuses became the nation's first<span style="color: Red;">*</span>nomination contest, Bill Clinton has been the only candidate to make it to the White House without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. But even he was dubbed the “Comeback Kid” for finishing second in the Granite State.
With Donald Trump leading comfortably in New Hampshire, the other GOP candidates<span style="color: Red;">*</span>are largely battling for second place. RealClearPolitics'<span style="color: Red;">*</span>average of the latest polls puts Trump at 33.2%, or 21.7<span style="color: Red;">*</span>points ahead of Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, tied at 11.5%.
USA TODAY
USA TODAY's 2016 Presidential Poll Tracker
USA TODAY
Medved: After Iowa caucuses, Trump haters need Republican losers to fight on
Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire<span style="color: Red;">*</span>primary in 2008, but polls this time show her trailing<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., by an average 18 points. Clinton's<span style="color: Red;">*</span>support is stronger in the South -- and<span style="color: Red;">*</span>South Carolina's Democratic primary will be held on Feb. 27 --<span style="color: Red;">*</span>but experts say her candidacy could be damaged if she performs badly in the first two states.
Iowa and New Hampshire are largely white states that take their roles in the nominating process seriously. New Hampshire has more registered Republicans than Democrats, but the state’s largest bloc consists of<span style="color: Red;">*</span>“undeclared” voters who can cast ballots in<span style="color: Red;">*</span>either party’s primary.
The Iowa caucuses bring out<span style="color: Red;">*</span>state residents who are passionate about their political choices, and most everyone else tends to stay home.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>It's different in<span style="color: Red;">*</span>New Hampshire, where primary voters include those who aren't as<span style="color: Red;">*</span>intensely political and where turnout is higher, said Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and a political science professor.
The Democratic electorate is upper-income and progressive in both states, but on the Republican side<span style="color: Red;">*</span>there are stark<span style="color: Red;">*</span>differences, Smith said. Republican caucuses in Iowa are dominated by evangelicals and social conservatives, while New Hampshire Republicans tend to be more moderate on political and social issues.
“That’s the primary reason why no Republican has ever won the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries in the same year, unless they were the sitting president,” Smith said. “They’re different political planets between Iowa and New Hampshire on the Republican side.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who dropped out of the GOP presidential nomination race Dec. 21,<span style="color: Red;">*</span>is campaigning<span style="color: Red;">*</span>in New Hampshire this week for former Florida governor<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Jeb Bush. Graham, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said his pitch will focus on the need to elect someone with the temperament, judgment and experience to be commander in chief during a time of war.
“New Hampshire is always kind of different than Iowa,” Graham said during an interview in<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Washington on<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Sunday. “Social conservativism matters a lot in Iowa. It matters some in New Hampshire, but the New Hampshire voters are fiscal conservative and I can tell you after having campaigned up there, national security is a very big deal.”
USA TODAY
Christie aims to be 'No. 1 governor' coming out of Iowa, N.H.
Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas all have the infrastructure to keep them going after New Hampshire, Graham said. If Ohio Gov. John Kasich and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie<span style="color: Red;">*</span>exceed expectations in New Hampshire — they've invested more time there than their GOP rivals — that could help give them the resources they will<span style="color: Red;">*</span>need later, he said.
Sen. Ted Cruz speaks at Exeter Town Hall on Jan. 20, 2016, in Exeter, N.H.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Darren McCollester, Getty Images)
While most people living in Iowa were born there, New Hampshire has a high population churn. A recent University of New Hampshire study of demographic, polling and voter registration data found more than 30% of potential voters in the Granite State either lived in another state in 2008 or were not old enough to vote.
“Judging what’s going to happen in the New Hampshire primary based on what’s happened in the past is perilous,” said co-author Kenneth Johnson, a sociology professor at University of New Hampshire.
Smith, also a co-author, said the political preferences of recent migrants are similar to those of New Hampshire’s established voters and likely won’t shift voting results.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>But young voters — 129,000 New Hampshire residents<span style="color: Red;">*</span>celebrated their 18th birthdays between 2008 and 2015 — could change the political calculus, particularly on the Democratic side, where they’re more likely to vote.
USA TODAY
Sanders powered by young people, but lacks Obama advantages
USA TODAY
O'Malley looks for traction in Democratic race dominated by Clinton, Sanders
New Hampshire polls that rely<span style="color: Red;">*</span>on lists of registered voters or previous primary voters likely underestimate Sanders' potential advantage, Smith said.
A CNN/WMUR-TV poll the university conducted Jan. 27-30 did not use previous primary voters as a sample. It gave Sanders a 23-point lead, fueled largely by voters under 35 and first-time primary voters. The problem for Sanders? Those groups are the<span style="color: Red;">*</span>least likely to vote.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. meets with attendees as he departs a campaign stop on Jan. 21, 2016, at Southern New Hampshire University in Hooksett, N.H.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Matt Rourke, AP)
“That really is the key impact that these new voters might make,” Smith said. “I think it’s going to be on the Democratic side and I think it’s likely going to benefit Bernie Sanders very strongly — if they show up.”
It could help Sanders that New Hampshire colleges will be in session on primary day, making it easier for students to get to the polls. College campuses will be a primary focus for Sanders' voter outreach efforts, but his campaign isn't<span style="color: Red;">*</span>taking support from college students or anyone else<span style="color: Red;">*</span>for granted, according to Karthik Ganapathy, Sanders’ New Hampshire communications director.
“All it comes down to is getting out the vote,” he said. “It’s all been building up to this.”
Powered By WizardRSS.com | Full Text RSS Feed