Luke Skywalker
Super Moderator
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In this Nov. 19, 2014, file photo, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, center, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, left, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, right, speak at the Republican Governors Association annual conference in Boca Raton, Fla.(Photo: J Pat Carter, AP)
Doing nothing but getting ready to run for president may be fine for Hillary Rodham Clinton and Jeb Bush. But five of the most likely 2016 candidates still have day jobs in the U.S. Senate and statehouses. For them, the coming year is a chance to burnish their résumés with legislative achievements that will appeal to voters — if and when they jump into the presidential contest.
These potential candidates — Sens. Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz and Govs. Chris Christie and Scott Walker, all five Republicans — have already made their bones as politicians to watch. Think of Paul filibustering on national security, Walker surviving a recall election or Christie walking the storm-battered boardwalk in his fleece jacket.
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Now in their second terms, Christie and Walker may have trouble racking up braggable achievements in 2015. Walker, who virtually ended collective bargaining for public employees in Wisconsin, has said he does not want to try legislation aimed at private sector unions. Christie faces a potential tax hike in New Jersey, either on millionaires or on gasoline. Republican primary voters aren't going to like either.
Christie must deal with revenue shortfalls that have led the state to cut pension fund payments; the state transportation trust fund needs money, and the state's credit rating has been downgraded. He must also work with a Democratic-controlled legislature that is less cooperative since the scandal involving a politically motivated traffic jam on the George Washington Bridge — now the subject of a federal investigation.
In this Oct. 29, 2014, file photo, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, accompanied by his wife, Pat, speaks at an event marking the second anniversary of Superstorm Sandy, in Belmar, N.J.(Photo: Mel Evans, AP)
"My inclination is that he is essentially going to try to tread water and not upset any enemies for as long as he can,'' says political scientist Brigid Harrison of Montclair (N.J.) State University.
Christie and Walker "still have a megaphone. (They) can do some things that can draw press,'' says John Brabender, a GOP consultant who advised former senator Rick Santorum's 2012 presidential campaign. "The second advantage, quite frankly, is raising money.''
In the Senate, Paul, Cruz and Rubio, still in their first terms, are now in the majority. "They're still putting together a record,'' says GOP strategist Ron Bonjean. "Right away, most of them can lay out their visions,'' either in Senate floor speeches or events elsewhere.
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They'll have fewer excuses not to get things done. Being in the majority is "an opportunity but it really creates a new difficulty,'' Brabender says. Paul and Cruz have built much of their national profile standing in opposition. "Chances are the things that (Senate Republicans) are going to put out there are things he's going to agree with. In some sense, it limits his opportunities to stand out. On the other hand, the hope would be it would help him increase his résumé of things he helped get done.''
The Kentucky senator says he will announce a decision on a presidential bid in the spring. He has already introduced a bill to eliminate foreign aid to the Palestinian Authority until it drops a request to join the International Criminal Court.
His first legislative goal, Paul said in an interview, is cutting corporate taxes to encourage U.S. corporations to repatriate profits now held overseas to avoid taxes — an issue he is working on with California Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. "It's big. It's an economic stimulus. It's one of these curious creatures that has bipartisan support,'' he said. He also has hopes for criminal justice reform measures, including restricting civil forfeiture in drug cases, restoring voting rights for felons and reducing mandatory minimum sentences — an issue on which he has found support from Attorney General Eric Holder and other Democrats.
Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Rand Paul, R-Ky., both potential 2016 presidential contenders.(Photo: Drew Angerer, Getty Images)
"Every one of us wants to pass things, and we're excited to be in control and in charge,'' Paul says.
Look for Rubio to push for sanctions against Iran and legislation to halt President Obama's executive action restoring relations with Cuba, says Rubio press secretary Alex Conant. In addition, Conant says, the Florida senator wants to move forward legislation to give college students more information about how their student debt will stack up against their earning potential, and to replace the earned income tax credit with monthly wage supplements.
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"He's really looking forward to … having votes on some of his ideas,'' Conant says. "Issues of economic inequality and mobility are why he entered public service to begin with.''
Rubio and others may have an opportunity in bill amendments, some of which require only 51 votes to pass — meaning no Democratic support would be needed. Paul, for one, says he wants plenty of "rules" on how federal money can and cannot be spent.
"If you think small, you're actually playing big. You can get these small rifle shot amendments to bills passed and it can build into a record,'' Bonjean says. "You can take arcane issues and turn them into soundbites that the public understand.''
Paul has done so, for instance, by criticizing $2.5 million in National Institutes of Health spending on condom research.
"If they're able to get bills passed in the senate they can take credit for it, and add it to their roster of wins,'' Bonjean says.
And if Obama vetoes a bill or it is opposed by Democrats, that too will work for these potential 2016ers, he says. "They can run against Washington gridlock.''
Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., speaks to the media on Dec. 18, 2014, in Miami.(Photo: Joe Raedle, Getty Images)
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