Luke Skywalker
Super Moderator
{vb:raw ozzmodz_postquote}:
There is only really one correct way to watch Tuesday's presidential balloting: Fly to Hawaii, order a beverage with an umbrella in it and watch the waves and the results of the Hawaii Republican caucuses roll in.
If you are not so fortunate as to have this option, here are some other pointers:
[h=2]Looking for a Motor City miracle<span style="color: Red;">*</span>[/h]John Kasich greets supporters after speaking at a campaign event at Monroe County Community College in Monroe, Mich., on March 7, 2016.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Tannen Maury, European Pressphoto Agency)
Once upon a time, Michigan was must-win territory for John Kasich, the governor of neighboring Ohio.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Kasich had hoped he could do well in Midwest primaries to stake a claim to being the best "establishment" alternative to Trump.
You can pick your polls here: NBC News/The Wall Street Journalreported Sunday<span style="color: Red;">*</span>that Donald Trump is up by large margins in Michigan with Cruz in second and Kasich trailing badly; on Monday there was a new<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Monmouth University poll<span style="color: Red;">*</span>showing Trump's lead shrinking by the day with Kasich close on his heels. We here at USA TODAY believe there is a 50-50 chance one of these polls is accurate.
Our colleague Chrissie Thompson of the Cincinnati Enquirer, who<span style="color: Red;">*</span>has been trailing Kasich all over creation, writes that Kasich<span style="color: Red;">*</span>needs<span style="color: Red;">*</span>to perform well<span style="color: Red;">*</span>in the Michigan primary to assure his home-state voters — who cast primary ballots March 15 — that he is a viable choice.
Same goes for Marco Rubio, who saw his support erode dramatically in the Louisiana primary and other GOP contests last week. Rubio got some bragging rights by winning Sunday's Puerto Rico primary by a<span style="color: Red;">*</span>huge margin, taking 71% of the vote. But he still has not won a primary on the continental landmass (his only victory was the Minnesota caucuses on Super Tuesday), and, like Kasich,<span style="color: Red;">*</span>he faces a do-or-die moment in his home-state primary March 15. A good showing in Michigan would help.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have both been spending a good deal of time in Michigan, in part because of the debate on Sunday night that was organized to bring attention to the drinking water crisis in Flint. Clinton has been far ahead in<span style="color: Red;">*</span>pre-primary polls, but the gap has been closing. Sanders would be pleased if she wins in a squeaker, thrilled if he can pull out a victory.
Most Michigan polls close at 8 p.m. ET, except for those that close<span style="color: Red;">*</span>an hour later in<span style="color: Red;">*</span>four counties in the Upper Peninsula that are in the Central time zone.
[h=2]Clear as Mississippi mud[/h]Hillary Clinton speaks at a reception for the Michigan Democratic Party at the MGM Grand Hotel in Detroit on March 5, 2016.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Tannen Maury, European Pressphoto Agency)
The Republican race here is a bit more of a question mark. There is not a lot of polling; what there is suggests a big lead for Trump. But in Louisiana's Saturday primary, Trump's victory was by less than four percentage points, as late-deciding voters appeared to be trending away from him and Rubio and toward Cruz.
Trump held a rally in the state Monday evening.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Cruz canceled a Monday<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Mississippi event, apparently because he was<span style="color: Red;">*</span>not feeling well. At the last minute he then added a stop in the state Monday afternoon.
If Trump's leads have dwindled in Mississippi and Michigan, he may be feeling a lot better Wednesday.
Things are clearer on the Democratic side. The Mississippi primary should be a cakewalk for Clinton, if the rest of her performance in the South is any indication. She has been crushing Sanders among black voters in general and in Southern states where African Americans make up a significant chunk of the primary electorate. In primaries in neighboring Alabama and Louisiana, Clinton took more than 70% of the<span style="color: Red;">*</span>vote.
Polls close at 7 p.m. Central time.
[h=2]GOP's gem in the mountains[/h]Ted Cruz offers autographs while mingling with supporters after a rally on March 5, 2016, at the Kootenai County Fairgrounds in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Shawn Gust, AP)
There has only been one poll in the Idaho Republican primary, and it doesn't seem very helpful. The poll released Sunday by<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Idaho Politics Weekly<span style="color: Red;">*</span>shows Trump up over Cruz 30%-19%, but the poll was taken Feb. 17-26<span style="color: Red;">*</span>— before Ben Carson dropped out of the race.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Carson took 11% in the poll.
Cruz and Rubio both campaigned in the state<span style="color: Red;">*</span>over the weekend; Trump has not been in the state<span style="color: Red;">*</span>but gave a<span style="color: Red;">*</span>shout-out<span style="color: Red;">*</span>to Idaho potatoes at a rally Monday in North Carolina.
The Democrats caucus in Idaho on March 22.
Polls close at 8 p.m Mountain time, and an hour later for the part of the state that's in the Pacific time zone.
[h=2]Hawaii does have Republicans[/h]GOP front-runner Donald Trump addresses the media during a press conference on March 5, 2016, in West Palm Beach, Fla.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Rhona Wise, AFP/Getty Images)
Hawaii is generally Democratic territory. The governor, both U.S. senators and both members of Congress are Democrats, and Ted Cruz this week<span style="color: Red;">*</span>touted an endorsement from "the only Republican serving in the state Senate."
But there are still Republicans in paradise,<span style="color: Red;">*</span>and reports are<span style="color: Red;">*</span>that turnout is expected to be high for Tuesday's caucuses. Andrew Walden, chair of the party's caucus committee, said the campaigns have all been active on the islands, with endorsements from local officials and surrogates hosting events. Walden said former candidate<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Rick Santorum made a trip to Hawaii campaign on behalf of Marco Rubio.
East Coasters might have to wait a while for results:<span style="color: Red;">*</span>The caucuses<span style="color: Red;">*</span>wrap<span style="color: Red;">*</span>up at 8 p.m. local time,<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Walden said the first results should be in by 8:30, but it will likely be midnight before the last results are reported. That's like Thursday afternoon in New York. (That's an exaggeration. It's 5 a.m. Wednesday.)
Democrats caucus in Hawaii on March 26.
[h=2]Total delegates in each state:[/h]Republicans
Michigan:<span style="color: Red;">*</span>59
Mississippi: 40
Idaho: 32
Hawaii: 19
Democrats
Michigan: 147
Mississippi: 41
Powered By WizardRSS.com | Full Text RSS Feed