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[h=4]USA TODAY GOP Power Rankings: Trump dominates last look at unpredictable race[/h]In final week of rankings, the big winners are Trump, social media and authenticity.
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Week 22 results for USA TODAY’s GOP Power Rankings.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: AP)
In the final week of our GOP Power Rankings, the big winners are Donald Trump, social media and authenticity.
For 22 weeks, USA TODAY has been asking a panel of political experts who is the strongest candidate in the Republican field. We are suspending our survey after this week's edition because beginning<span style="color: Red;">*</span>with the Feb 1 Iowa caucuses,<span style="color: Red;">*</span>the voters will begin ranking the candidates for us.
For the final week of our Power Rankings, like the first week and all but five weeks of the survey, Trump is out front. In fact, with the Iowa caucuses less than a week away, Trump appears stronger than ever. He received 26 first-place votes this week, the most he has ever received from our<span style="color: Red;">*</span>panel.
It is a complete reversal from the end of September, when the general consensus of our experts was that Trump had peaked, that his spats with various candidates and public figures were wearing thin. Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio were<span style="color: Red;">*</span>trending upward based on strong debate performances, and national polls showed Ben Carson tied with Trump for the lead.
USA TODAY
USA TODAY's 2016 Presidential Poll Tracker
But week after week, Trump proved he had staying power, just by continuing to be Donald Trump.
"The enduring lesson from this (campaign) season is that authenticity matters," said Alex Smith of the College Republicans. "Young voters were decisive in the 2012 general election, and will be so again in 2016, comprising 20% of the electorate. What is the one trait that matters to them? Being who you say you are. For #nofilter millennials, a contest between two candidates who are fearless in what they say and how they say it is likely to yield very interesting results."
Activist Deb Lucia agrees and thinks social media has been critical. "No one would have predicted Trump's sustaining lead or that Cruz and Rubio are at the top with him," she said. "Nether would have anyone guessed that Sanders is a contender on the Democratic side. This shows that the<span style="color: Red;">*</span>D.C.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>establishment has zero clue on how dissatisfied the American public is with the power class."
Lucia<span style="color: Red;">*</span>adds, "Maybe social media is the change agent that's made it possible. People are getting more information<span style="color: Red;">*</span>about what's going on in Washington and see ... that cronyism makes all the difference in who's succeeding and who's left behind."
Social media also allows candidates to seem<span style="color: Red;">*</span>more familiar to voters, said Aaron Ghitelman of Headcount. "Twitter, Facebook, Instagram are all forms of media that are supposed to capture honesty and frankness. We use social media to see what life is like for our celebrities. To hear what<span style="color: Red;">*</span>they personally think about issues. With Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders we now have candidates using<span style="color: Red;">*</span>social media effectively the way many celebrities have."
USA TODAY
2016 USA TODAY/Facebook candidate barometer
Though not a single vote has been cast, it appears thus far that the rules of political engagement have changed.
"Traditional predictors of success apply no longer," said Adam Sharp of Twitter. "Money raised and spent, endorsements received, years-old field infrastructure are now all secondary to the ability to deliver a compelling message directly to the voter base.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>We are in a new age of retail politics, where the one-to-one intimacy and authenticity of the handshake and ask for a vote can be executed at scale as candidates turn to Twitter and other tools to bypass the wholesale channels of the last half-century of campaign craft."
"Money still matters but not as much as it once did if you can create and control the narrative," said lobbyist Paul Brathwaite of Podesta Group. But message still matters, said digital guru Phil Musser. While every election season is unique and the lessons of the last are usually short-lived, there is a long-standing principle that remains true, Musser said — "A Clear Message, Clearly Communicated, Matters Most. See: Donald Trump."
USA TODAY
Trump draws Iowa crowds with un-Iowa style
Our panel unwittingly demonstrates how new the rules are this year.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Asked to pick winners for<span style="color: Red;">*</span>the Democratic and Republican caucuses in Iowa, they divided almost evenly in both races.
Thirteen of our panelists predicted a<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Trump victory, 11 picked Cruz, one said Rubio, and the rest ventured no guess.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>On<span style="color: Red;">*</span>the Democratic side, 13 panelists predicted a Hillary Clinton win in Iowa and 12 picked Bernie Sanders.
Nathan Gonzales, a professional political handicapper, warned that until the voters vote, it is too early to try to draw lessons from the Season of Trump.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>"Anyone who tells you they thought this is where we'd be before Iowa is lying," he said, "and anyone who tells you now that they are certain where this race is headed<span style="color: Red;">*</span>is delusional."
But there is one guy who can claim some foresight.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>In July, former<span style="color: Red;">*</span>presidential candidate Herman Cain told USA TODAY that Trump was benefiting from the same tide that lifted Cain's campaign in 2012: a sense among voters that they were "telling it like it is."
"The only people that think it’s out of the question (that Trump could win) are the people in the political establishment and people in quite frankly the liberal media,” Cain said then.
No one is saying it is out of the question anymore.
[h=2]UP NEXT[/h][h=2]03[/h]
A USA TODAY motion graphic showing 22 weeks of the GOP Power Rankings: September 1, 2015 through January 26, 2016. Ramon Padilla, USA TODAY.
WEEK 22<span style="color: Red;">*</span>RANKINGS
[h=2]1. Donald Trump (Last Week: 1)[/h][h=2]2. Ted Cruz (2)[/h][h=2]3. Marco Rubio (3)[/h][h=2]4. John Kasich<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(6)[/h][h=2]5. Jeb Bush (5)[/h][h=2]6. Chris Christie<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(4)[/h][h=2]7. Ben Carson (7)[/h][h=2]8. Rand Paul (8)[/h][h=2]9. Carly Fiorina (9)[/h][h=2]10. Mike Huckabee (10)[/h][h=2]11. Rick Santorum (11)[/h][h=2]12. Jim Gilmore (12)[/h]Week 1<span style="color: Red;">*</span>|<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Week 2<span style="color: Red;">*</span>|<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Week 3
Week 4<span style="color: Red;">*</span> |<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Week 5<span style="color: Red;">*</span>|<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Week 6
Week 7<span style="color: Red;">*</span>|<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Week 8<span style="color: Red;">*</span>|<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Week 9
Week 10<span style="color: Red;">*</span>|<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Week 11<span style="color: Red;">*</span>|<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Week 12
Week 13<span style="color: Red;">*</span>|<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Week 14<span style="color: Red;">*</span>|<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Week 15
Week 16<span style="color: Red;">*</span>|<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Week 17<span style="color: Red;">*</span>|<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Week 18
Week 19<span style="color: Red;">*</span>|<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Week 20<span style="color: Red;">*</span>| Week 21
Participants in<span style="color: Red;">*</span>USA TODAY's GOP Power Rankings:
Kristen Soltis Anderson, Republican pollster and author of The Selfie Vote
Henry Barbour, Republican strategist, Mississippi
Paul Brathwaite,<span style="color: Red;">*</span>principal, Podesta Group
Dianne Bystrom, director, Center for Women and Politics, Iowa State University
Herman Cain, talk show host and former GOP presidential candidate
Maria Cardona, Democratic strategist and CNN Commentator, The Dewey Square Group
Frank Donatelli, former RNC deputy chairman and Reagan advisor
Sara Fagen, partner, DDC Advocacy
Peter Fenn, Democratic political strategist, Fenn Communications
Denise Feriozzi, deputy executive director, EMILY’s List
Karen Floyd, CEO, The Palladian Group and former South Carolina GOP chair
Aaron Ghitelman, communications manager, HeadCount
Andra Gillespie, polling analyst and political science professor, Emory University<span style="color: Red;">*</span>
Nathan L. Gonzales, editor, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report
Lilly J. Goren, political science and global studies professor, Carroll University
Doug Gross, Iowa attorney and previous Republican gubernatorial nominee
O. Kay Henderson, news director, Radio Iowa
Ken Khachigian, senior partner, Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck
Carl Leubsdorf, Washington columnist, The Dallas Morning News
Deb Lucia, Topeka 912 – the Capital City Tea Party
Matt Mackowiak, Republican consultant and president, Potomac Strategy Group, LLC
Dan Maffei, former Democratic congressman, New York
Phil Musser, chairman, IMGE digital media agency
Margie Omero, Democratic pollster, Purple Insights
Jon Ralston, host, "Ralston Live" on PBS affiliates in Nevada
Craig Robinson, founder and editor, TheIowaRepublican.com
Alan Rosenblatt, Ph.D., Sr. VP of digital strategy, turner4D
Dante Scala, political science professor, University of New Hampshire
Adam Sharp, head of news, government and elections, Twitter
Alex Smith, national chairman, College Republicans
Todd Spangler, Washington correspondent, Detroit Free Press
Kathy Sullivan, DNC committeewoman and former Democratic Party chair, New Hampshire
Special thanks to the Palladian Group for building our survey platform.
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