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Voting signs are seen at the Newmarket Fire and Rescue station in preparation for Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Joe Raedle, Getty Images)
If you are reading this, the voting has already begun in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary, as tiny towns like Dixville Notch and Hart's Location<span style="color: Red;">*</span>cast their ballots at midnight.
But the real deal starts Tuesday morning, and New Hampshire has a record of making history in its primaries.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Here's what to watch for:
[h=2]Race for second[/h]Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have both been leading in the New Hampshire polls by double-digit margins for months. They both crushed it in a statewide poll of 11,000 K-12 students in the state last week.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>If either one of them loses the New Hampshire primary, it will be the equivalent of a political earthquake. So the real eyes are on the second-place finishers, and in the Republican race, perhaps third. On the Democratic side, if Hillary Clinton can get Sanders' margin of victory down below 10%, she can claim some success in challenging Sanders on his home turf (he's from neighboring Vermont). On the Republican side, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich and Jeb Bush have all averaged between 10% and 15% in the polls. If one of them can break away from the pack and finish more than 5% (or so) ahead of the rest of the field, it will give them the opportunity to claim to be the standard-bearer for the<span style="color: Red;">*</span>"Not Trump" lane of the party.
USA TODAY
Game on: What each candidate needs from New Hampshire
[h=2]Pollsters[/h]If Sanders and Trump do not win by large margins, prepare for a bunch of hand-wringing from pollsters, who are already under fire for unanimously failing to predict Ted Cruz's Iowa victory last week. There are a lot of good reasons to be skeptical of the polls — there are a lot of candidates in the GOP field so it is hard to narrow down the level of support among them; New Hampshire voters notoriously make their decisions late in the race; and it can be very difficult to predict turnout for non-traditional candidates like Trump and Sanders. (Here's a good podcast by pollsters Margie Omero and Kristen Anderson breaking down the Iowa polls.) <span style="color: Red;">*</span>Still, for months polls have been the only real measure of who is up and who is down in the presidential race; those of us who cover politics for a living would feel better if the polls turned out to be right.
Audience members listen to Bernie Sanders speak at a campaign rally at Daniel Webster College on Feb. 8, 2016, in Nashua, N.H.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Andrew Burton, Getty Images)
[h=2]Independent voters[/h]There are more registered independent voters in New Hampshire (390,000) than Democrats (231,000)<span style="color: Red;">*</span>and Republicans (262,000), and under state law any voter can walk into a polling pace and choose a primary ballot for any party. So independent voters will have a dramatic impact on the outcome, and watching how these voters align in New Hampshire might provide an interesting signal for which candidates could reach independents in November's general election.
[h=2]Turnout is key[/h]The New Hampshire secretary of state is predicting more than 550,000 people will vote in the primaries Tuesday, which would be historically high and good news for "outsider" candidates Trump and Sanders who draw a lot of support from new voters. Keep in mind that new Hampshire allows out-of-state college students to declare residency in the state and vote there, which is also good news for Sanders, who is doing very well among young voters. Weather should not be a significant factor:<span style="color: Red;">*</span>It snowed in much of the state Monday and more snow is forecast for Tuesday, but not enough to keep these hearty New Englanders at home.
Gilead Towne carries a campaign sign supporting Donald Trump as he leaves the Newmarket Trump campaign headquarters on Feb. 8, 2016, in Newmarket, N.H.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Joe Raedle, Getty Images)
[h=2]Early(ish) Results[/h]Most polls close in New Hampshire at 7 p.m. Eastern; the Iowa caucuses did not begin until 8 p.m. Eastern. So we should have meaningful results before the 11 p.m.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>news.
[h=2]Next dropouts?[/h]Results were not yet compete in Iowa before the first candidate<span style="color: Red;">*</span>— former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee<span style="color: Red;">*</span>— dropped out of the<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Republican race, followed quickly former senator Rick Santorum<span style="color: Red;">*</span>and Sen. Rand Paul, and, on the Democratic side, former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley. Elections have results, and candidates who did poorly in Iowa like Kasich, Bush, Chris Christie, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina will have a hard time continuing their campaigns if New Hampshire gives them a second weak result.
USA TODAY
Elections 2016 | USA TODAY Network
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