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What's next in MH370 search?

Luke Skywalker

Super Moderator
{vb:raw ozzmodz_postquote}:
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On June 26, the Joint Agency Coordination Center released a map showing the new search area for flight MH370 in the southern Indian Ocean.
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A policewoman watches a couple whose son was on board the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 cry outside the airline's office building in Beijing after officials refused to meet with them on Wednesday, June 11. The jet has been missing since March 8.
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Members of the media scramble to speak with Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, director general of Malaysia's Civil Aviation Department, at a hotel in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Tuesday, May 27. Data from communications between satellites and missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 was released Tuesday, more than two months after relatives of passengers say they requested that it be made public.
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This photo illustration shows a journalist looking on the data communication logs from British satellite operator Inmarsat. Malaysian authorities have published the 47-page document containing hundreds of lines of communication logs between the jetliner and Inmarsat's satellite system.
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Relatives of Chinese passengers who were on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 listen to part of the audio communications between Flight 370's cockpit and air traffic controllers during a meeting with Malaysian officials Wednesday, April 30, in Beijing.
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An autonomous underwater vehicle is brought back aboard the Australian ship Ocean Shield after a search mission for the flight Saturday, April 19, in the southern Indian Ocean.
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A Royal Malaysian Air Force plane takes off from an airbase near Perth, Australia, to help in the search on Thursday, April 17.
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Operators aboard the Australian ship Ocean Shield move Bluefin-21, the U.S. Navy's autonomous underwater vehicle, into position to search for the jet on Monday, April 14.
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A member of the Royal New Zealand Air Force looks out of a window while searching for debris off the coast of western Australia on Sunday, April 13.
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British Royal Navy sailors aboard the vessel HMS Echo take part in the search for the jet on April 13.
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Crew members aboard the Echo watch a smaller boat that's part of the British search effort on April 13.
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The Echo moves through the waters of the southern Indian Ocean.
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A map provided Saturday, April 12, details efforts to find the missing jet.
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Chinese navy personnel head out on a boat to the Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Success on Wednesday, April 9.
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A Royal Australian Air Force AP-3C Orion, on a mission to drop sonar buoys to assist in the search, flies past the Australian vessel Ocean Shield on April 9.
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A relative of a missing passenger cries at a vigil in Beijing on Tuesday, April 8.
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A member of the Royal Australian Air Force walks toward a plane that just arrived in Perth on April 8.
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Australian Defense Force divers scan the water for debris Monday, April 7, in the southern Indian Ocean.
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A towed pinger locator is readied to be deployed April 7 off the deck of the Australian vessel Ocean Shield.
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Capt. Mark Matthews of the U.S. Navy talks to reporters in Perth about the search on April 7.
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A member of the search operation points to a map outlining search areas during a news conference April 7 in Perth.
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A U.S. Navy airplane takes off from Perth to assist in the search on April 7.
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A member of the Royal New Zealand Air Force looks at a flare in the Indian Ocean during search operations on Friday, April 4.
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Members of the Royal New Zealand Air Force monitor data April 4 on board an aircraft during search operations.
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A relative of a Flight 370 passenger watches television in a Beijing hotel as he awaits new information about the missing plane on Thursday, April 3.
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Another relative of a Flight 370 passenger waits for updates in Beijing on Wednesday, April 2. Many families have criticized the Malaysian government's handling of information in the plane's disappearance.
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A member of the Japanese coast guard points to a flight position data screen while searching for debris from the missing jet on Tuesday, April 1.
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Kojiro Tanaka, head of the Japanese coast guard search mission, explains the efforts en route to the search zone April 1.
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A woman prepares for an event in honor of those aboard Flight 370 on Sunday, March 30, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
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An underwater search-surveying vehicle sits on the wharf in Perth, ready to be fitted to a ship to aid in the search for the jet.
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A girl in Kuala Lumpur writes a note during a ceremony for the missing passengers on March 30.
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A teary-eyed woman listens from the back as other relatives of Flight 370 passengers speak to reporters March 30 in Subang Jaya, Malaysia. Dozens of anguished Chinese relatives demanded that Malaysia provide answers to the fate of those on board.
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An object floating in the southern Indian Ocean is seen from a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 Orion aircraft searching for the missing jet on Saturday, March 29. Ships participating in the search retrieved new debris Saturday, but no objects linked to the missing plane, according to Australian authorities.
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A Royal New Zealand Air Force member launches a GPS marker buoy over the southern Indian Ocean on March 29.
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The sole representative for the families of Flight 370 passengers leaves a conference at a Beijing hotel on Friday, March 28, after other relatives left en masse to protest the Malaysian government's response to their questions.
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A member of the Royal Australian Air Force is silhouetted against the southern Indian Ocean during the search for the missing jet on Thursday, March 27.
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Flight Lt. Jayson Nichols looks at a map aboard a Royal Australian Air Force aircraft during a search on March 27.
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People in Kuala Lumpur light candles during a ceremony held for the missing flight's passengers on March 27.
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Crew members of the Chinese icebreaking ship Xuelong scan the Indian Ocean during a search for the missing jet on Wednesday, March 26.
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People work at a console at the British satellite company Inmarsat on Tuesday, March 25, in London.
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The mother of a passenger who was on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 cries at her home in Medan, Indonesia, on March 25.
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Australian Defense Minister David Johnston speaks to the media March 25 about the search for the missing jet.
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A family member of a missing passenger reacts after hearing the latest news March 25 in Kuala Lumpur.
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Angry relatives of those aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 react in Beijing on Monday, March 24, after hearing that the plane went down over the southern Indian Ocean, according to analysis of satellite data.
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Grieving relatives of missing passengers leave a hotel in Beijing on March 24.
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Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, center, delivers a statement about the flight March 24 in Kuala Lumpur. Razak's announcement came after the airline sent a text message to relatives saying it "deeply regrets that we have to assume beyond any reasonable doubt that MH 370 has been lost and that none of those onboard survived."
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Relatives of the missing passengers hold a candlelight vigil in Beijing on March 24.
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A member of the Royal Australian Air Force looks out an aircraft during a search for the missing jet March 24.
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A woman reads messages for missing passengers at a shopping mall in Kuala Lumpur on March 24.
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Flight Lt. Josh Williams of the Royal Australian Air Force operates the controls of an AP-3C Orion on Sunday, March 23, after searching the southern Indian Ocean.
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Ground crew members wave to a Japanese Maritime Defense Force patrol plane as it leaves the Royal Malaysian Air Force base in Subang, Malaysia, on Sunday, March 23. The plane was heading to Australia to join a search-and-rescue operation.
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A passenger views a weather map in the departures terminal of Kuala Lumpur International Airport on Saturday, March 22.
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A Chinese satellite captured this image, released on March 22, of a floating object in the Indian Ocean, according to China's State Administration of Science. It is a possible lead in the search for the missing plane. Surveillance planes are looking for two objects spotted by satellite imagery in remote, treacherous waters more than 1,400 miles from the west coast of Australia.
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A member of the Royal Australian Air Force looks down at the Norwegian merchant ship Hoegh St. Petersburg, which took part in search operations Friday, March 21.
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The Royal Australian Air Force's Neville Dawson, left, goes over the search area with Brittany Sharpe aboard an AP-3C Orion some 2,500 kilometers (about 1,500 miles) southwest of Perth, Australia, over the Indian Ocean on March 21.
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" border="0" height="360" id="articleGalleryPhoto0056" width="640"/>Satellite imagery provided by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority on Thursday, March 20, shows debris in the southern Indian Ocean that could be from Flight 370. The announcement by Australian officials that they had spotted something raised hopes of a breakthrough in the frustrating search.
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A closer look at the satellite shot of possible debris from Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.
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Another satellite shot provided by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority shows possible debris from the flight.
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A closer look at the satellite shot of possible debris.
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The Australian Maritime Safety Authority's John Young speaks to the media in Canberra, Australia, on March 20 about satellite imagery.
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A distraught relative of a missing passenger breaks down while talking to reporters at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on Wednesday, March 19.
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A relative of missing passengers waits for a news briefing by officials in Beijing on Tuesday, March 18.
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A relative of a missing passenger tells reporters in Beijing about a hunger strike to protest authorities' handling of information about the missing jet.
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Sea area around the northern tip of Indonesia's Sumatra on Monday, March 17." border="0" height="360" id="articleGalleryPhoto0064" width="640"/>A member of Indonesia's National Search and Rescue Agency joins in a search for the missing plane in the Andaman Sea area around the northern tip of Indonesia's Sumatra on Monday, March 17.
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Relatives of missing passengers watch a news program about the missing plane as they await information at a hotel ballroom in Beijing on March 17.
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Malaysian Transportation Minister Hishamuddin Hussein, center, shows maps of the search area at a hotel next to the Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 17.
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U.S. Navy crew members assist in search-and-rescue operations Sunday, March 16, in the Indian Ocean.
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Indonesian personnel watch over high seas during a search operation in the Andaman Sea on Saturday, March 15.
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A foam plane, which has personalized messages for the missing flight's passengers, is seen at a viewing gallery March 15 at Kuala Lumpur International Airport.
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A member of the Malaysian navy makes a call as his ship approaches a Chinese coast guard ship in the South China Sea on March 15.
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A Indonesian ship heads to the Andaman Sea during a search operation near the tip of Sumatra, Indonesia, on March 15.
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Elementary school students pray for the missing passengers during class in Medan, Indonesia, on March 15.
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Col. Vu Duc Long of the Vietnam air force fields reporters' questions at an air base in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, after a search operation on Friday, March 14.
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Members of the Chinese navy continue search operations on Thursday, March 13. The search area for Flight 370 has grown wider. After starting in the sea between Malaysia and Vietnam, the plane's last confirmed location, efforts are expanding west into the Indian Ocean.
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A Vietnamese military official looks out an aircraft window during search operations March 13.
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Malaysian air force members look for debris on March 13 near Kuala Lumpur.
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A relative of a missing passenger watches TV at a Beijing hotel as she waits for the latest news March 13.
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A member of the Indonesian National Search and Rescue Agency scans the horizon in the Strait of Malacca on Wednesday, March 12.
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Relatives of missing passengers wait for the latest news at a hotel in Beijing on March 12.
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Journalists raise their hands to ask questions during a news conference in Sepang on March 12.
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Indonesian air force officers in Medan, Indonesia, examine a map of the Strait of Malacca on March 12.
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A member of the Vietnamese air force checks a map while searching for the missing plane on Tuesday, March 11.
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Iranians Pouri Nourmohammadi, second left, and Delavar Seyed Mohammad Reza, far right, were identified by Interpol as the two men who used stolen passports to board the flight. But there's no evidence to suggest either was connected to any terrorist organizations, according to Malaysian investigators. Malaysian police believe Nourmohammadi was trying to emigrate to Germany using the stolen Austrian passport.
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An Indonesian navy crew member scans an area of the South China Sea bordering Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand on Monday, March 10.
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Vietnam air force Col. Le Huu Hanh is reflected on the navigation control panel of a plane that is part of the search operation over the South China Sea on March 10.
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Relatives of the missing flight's passengers wait in a Beijing hotel room on March 10.
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A U.S. Navy Seahawk helicopter lands aboard the USS Pinckney to change crews before returning to search for the missing plane Sunday, March 9, in the Gulf of Thailand.
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Members of the Fo Guang Shan rescue team offer a special prayer March 9 at Kuala Lumpur International Airport.
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A handout picture provided by the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency shows personnel checking a radar screen during search-and-rescue operations March 9.
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Italian tourist Luigi Maraldi, who reported his passport stolen in August, shows his current passport during a news conference at a police station in Phuket island, Thailand, on March 9. Two passengers on the missing Malaysia Airlines flight were reportedly traveling on stolen passports belonging to Maraldi and an Austrian citizen whose papers were stolen two years ago.
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Hugh Dunleavy, commercial director of Malaysia Airlines, speaks to journalists March 9 at a Beijing hotel where relatives and friends of the missing flight's passengers are staying.
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Vietnamese air force crew stand in front of a plane at Tan Son Nhat airport in Ho Chi Minh City on March 9 before heading out to the area between Vietnam and Malaysia where the airliner vanished.
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Buddhist monks at Kuala Lumpur International Airport offer a special prayer for the missing passengers on March 9.
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The Chinese navy warship Jinggangshan prepares to leave Zhanjiang Port early on March 9 to assist in search-and-rescue operations for the missing Malaysia Airlines flight. The Jinggangshan, an amphibious landing ship, is loaded with lifesaving equipment, underwater detection devices and supplies of oil, water and food.
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Members of a Chinese emergency response team board a rescue vessel at the port of Sanya in China's Hainan province on March 9. The vessel is carrying 12 divers and will rendezvous with another rescue vessel on its way to the area where contact was lost with Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.
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The rescue vessel sets out from Sanya in the South China Sea.
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A family member of missing passengers is mobbed by journalists at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on Saturday, March 8.
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A Vietnamese air force plane found traces of oil that authorities had suspected to be from the missing Malaysia Airlines plane, the Vietnamese government online newspaper reported March 8. However, a sample from the slick showed it was bunker oil, typically used to power large cargo ships, Malaysia's state news agency, Bernama, reported on March 10.
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Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, center, arrives to meet family members of missing passengers at the reception center at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 8.
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Malaysia Airlines official Joshua Law Kok Hwa, center, speaks to reporters in Beijing on March 8.
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A relative of two missing passengers reacts at their home in Kuala Lumpur on March 8.
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Wang Yue, director of marketing of Malaysia Airlines in China, reads a company statement during a news conference at the Metro Park Lido Hotel in Beijing on March 8.
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Chinese police at the Beijing airport stand beside the arrival board showing delayed Flight 370 in red on March 8.
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A woman asks a staff member at the Beijing airport for more information on the missing flight.
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A Malaysian man who says he has relatives on board the missing plane talks to journalists at the Beijing airport on March 8.
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Passengers walk past a Malaysia Airlines sign on March 8 at Kuala Lumpur International Airport.
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Malaysia Airlines Group CEO Ahmad Juahari Yahya, front, speaks during a news conference on March 8 at a hotel in Sepang. "We deeply regret that we have lost all contacts" with the jet, he said.



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  • Next phase of search for MH370 will be undertaken by private contractor
  • Contractor will be required to search 60,000 square kilometers in 300 days
  • MH370 disappeared from radar five months ago, wreckage hasn't been found
  • 239 passengers and crew were on board the plane which was en route from KL to Beijing


(CNN) -- Australian authorities are poised to announce the next phase of the underwater search for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 this week, five months after the plane vanished without a trace.
The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB), which is leading the search for the missing plane at the Malaysian government's request, is expected to engage a single, private contractor to search for the Boeing 777-200ER, and if successfully located, to positively identify and map the wreckage.
The operation, which the ATSB says is likely to begin in early September and will last up to a year, will include a number of underwater vehicles that will slowly scan some 60,000 square kilometers (23,000 square miles) of the southern Indian Ocean, looking for any sign of aircraft debris.
It's not yet clear exactly how the deep-sea search, which Australia has estimated will cost $56 million, will play out. While the ATSB has developed the overall search strategy, the independent contractor will be responsible for day-to-day operations in the search zone.
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<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Refined search area for MH370
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Refined search area for MH370



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A Royal Australian Air Force AP-3C Orion takes off from the Pearce air base in Perth, Australia, to join the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 on Sunday, March 23.

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Crew aboard an Australian P-3 Orion "sub hunter" scan the southern Indian Ocean as they search for the missing plane on March 23.

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A U.S. airman monitors his instruments aboard a P-8 Poseidon during a mission in the southern Indian Ocean on March 23.

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Two giant Chinese Air Force Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft sit on the tarmac at Pearce air base on Saturday, March 22.

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Flight Lt. Jason Nichols, on board a Royal Australian Air Force AP-3C Orion, looks towards HMAS Success as they search for signs of the missing plane on March 22.

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The Norwegian merchant ship Hoegh St Petersburg, which was diverted to take part in the search, is seen from a Royal Australian Air Force P-3 Orion on Friday, March 21.


Multinational search for missing plane
Multinational search for missing plane
Multinational search for missing plane
Multinational search for missing plane
Multinational search for missing plane
Multinational search for missing plane


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Searching for MH370: Needle in a haystack


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MH370 search moves farther south
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Report: MH370 likely crashed on autopilot
"We have the shape of a plan based on information we have available to us," says Martin Dolan, the ATSB's Chief Commissioner. "It's a concept we need to test out with the operation experts and come up with the detailed plan... for the conduct of the search."
Mapping the ocean floor
Some 1,800 kilometers (1,100 miles) off the coast of Western Australia, a pair of survey ships continue their efforts to give search teams a better understanding of what lies thousands of meters below the surface in one of the most uncharted, remote places on the planet.
The Chinese Navy's Zhu Kezhen and the Australian-contracted Fugro Equator have covered roughly half of the priority search area, which the ATSB says is the most likely resting place of MH370. A Malaysian survey ship is on schedule to join them in August, and underwater mapping is expected to wrap up in September.
According to the ATSB, the data collected by survey ships is being converted into detailed topographical maps. Dolan says so far those maps show ocean depths ranging from 1,500 meters to nearly 5,000 meters (roughly one to three miles), and wide-ranging terrain that includes everything from flat, sloping surfaces, to rugged terrain like mountains, ridges, and cliffs.
David Gallo, an oceanographer and director of special projects at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, who was involved in the search for Air France Flight 447, says that a high level of detail is critical to make sure the search is carried out effectively and safely.
"You have to know where you're going or you'll end up impacting the bottom," Gallo says. "We're looking at less than a handful of tools that can work in this depth and that are available, so you really don't want to risk anything."
One of the most challenging spots, Gallo points out, is at the southern end of the search area, where he expects to see pockets of terrain up to 7,000 meters deep (four miles).
"The south side of that Broken Ridge is a monstrous wall... almost two miles top to bottom, almost vertical," Gallo explains, adding that there are only a few pieces of equipment worldwide that would even have a chance of reaching such extreme depths.
A slow, painstaking search
According to the ATSB's tender request, the contractor chosen to lead the search for MH370 will be required to begin the search no later than one month after signing the contract, and will be required to search all 60,000 square kilometers within 300 days.
Gallo says he expects a variety of different search assets to be used in the operation, including towed side-scan sonar devices, which are attached to a ship with a cable and can transmit data to the surface in real-time.
Robots known as underwater autonomous vehicles (UAVs) could also be used. They scan the ocean floor with similar acoustic technology but have to be brought in and out of the water, much like the Bluefin-21, which was deployed in April after search teams thought they had located pings from the plane's black boxes.
Each type of system has its strengths and weaknesses, Gallo says, noting that towed systems work well on flat terrain and cover ground quicker, while in more rugged areas, a drone which hugs the bottom will likely do a better job, albeit at a slower pace of around 65 square kilometers a day (25 square miles). For the most extreme terrain, Gallo says, search teams may need a remotely operated vehicle (ROV), steered from a surface ship with a tether.
Malaysia has already partnered with American and Australian contractors to supply additional search equipment, including a towed side-scan sonar and ROV. It's not yet clear how these will be integrated into the larger, Australian-run operation.
Where to start?
Where the search teams begin their work will depend on what the underwater maps show. "If there's a chunk of fairly smooth terrain and fairly shallow, you could get a lot of ground covered early on, which raises spirits a little bit," Gallo says.
But there's a lot of ground to cover. The area search teams hope to tackle over the next year is four times the size of the search zone for Air France 447, which went down in the mid-Atlantic in June 2009.
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MH370 radar data may have been wrong
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Group 'confident' about MH370's location
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MH370: 100 days of very little progress
And with more ground to search, and potentially up to half-a-dozen search assets involved, Gallo says, the operation becomes far more complex.
"The worst thing that we could do is have a ship show up with technology, have them go over the spot...and you write that spot off forever."
But Gallo adds that he is completely confident in the ATSB's ability to manage the overall operation and says that if the wreckage of MH370 is in the designated search zone, it will be found.
Are they looking in the right place?
There is far less confidence about whether search teams are looking in the right spot. The search for MH370 continues to focus along the seventh arc, the so-called "partial handshake," which experts believe was the last signal sent between the Malaysia Airlines plane and a communications satellite operated by Inmarsat.
"What I'm a little concerned about... is that there still seems to be some confusion about Inmarsat data and how it's being interpreted," said David Soucie, a former safety inspector at the U.S Federal Aviation Administration and author of "Why Planes Crash."
In late June, the ATSB announced it was moving the priority search area several hundred kilometers southwest, the second major shift of the search zone along the arc. That move was based on analysis of the satellite data and a review of aircraft performance limits, including speed and altitude, by an international group of experts.
That analysis also made a series of assumptions, "in order to define a search area of practical size," the ATSB's June report says, including that the plane was flying on autopilot for a long period of time until it eventually ran out of fuel and crashed. Not making that assumption, the report says, "would result in an impractically large search area."
The ATSB's Dolan says that the Inmarsat data will continue to be reviewed during the next phase of the search. And the bureau says there is still a chance the search may be extended outside the 60,000 square kilometers designated as the priority area.
"The haystack is a big chunk of terrain in the Indian Ocean," Gallo of Woods Hole says. And even though the haystack is huge there's no guarantee that the needle is in that haystack."
Soucie agrees, however, he adds the ATSB is going about the search in a smart way. "Am I confident they will find the airplane in that area? No. But if it were my search, I would be doing exactly what they're doing.
Despite a potentially vast search zone, Dolan says he's cautiously optimistic search teams will find the missing plane "We're doing this, in a large part, because we want to give some certainty to those who are grieving the loss of their loved ones, and we're fully committed to doing that."
MH370 departed Kuala Lumpur for Beijing early on the morning of March 8 carrying 239 passengers and crew. On March 24, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak announced that the flight had ended in the southern Indian Ocean.
To date, no trace of the plane has been found.
Australia: MH370 likely on autopilot with unresponsive crew in flight's final stage
For families of the missing, a hole in the clouds, an empty space on earth
MH370 families seek $5M for investigation, reward

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