Punxsutawney Phil, right, is held by Ben Hughes after emerging from his burrow on Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., on Feb. 2, 2010.(Photo: Gene J. Puskar, AP)
It's that time again when meteorologists step aside for a furry rodent to make a weather forecast.
Punxsutawney Phil, the world's most famous groundhog, will be coaxed out of his burrow on Gobbler's Knob early Monday to let an anxious nation know whether we'll have an early spring or six more weeks of miserable cold and snow.
According to folklore, if it's cloudy when the groundhog emerges Feb. 2, the critter will leave his burrow, meaning winter will soon end. If it's a sunny day, Phil will see his shadow and, frightened, retreat back into his burrow, meaning winter will continue for six more weeks.
The forecast for Monday morning in Punxsutawney, Pa., calls for cloudy skies and a chance of snow showers, but Phil is fickle, so who knows what he'll do?
No matter the outcome, it's best not to bet heavily on Phil: His forecast is no better than flipping a coin. Based on an analysis of weather data over the past 27 years, "there is no predictive skill for the groundhog," according to the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.
The center found that since 1988, the groundhog has been right 12 times and wrong 15 times in matching his prediction with the national average temperature for the remainder of February.
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Phil has been right the past couple of winters: Last year, the groundhog predicted six more weeks of winter when he saw his shadow, and both February and March temperatures were below average across the country. In 2013, Phil didn't see his shadow, and the month ended slightly warmer than average.
Since 1887, the groundhog has seen his shadow 101 times for a longer winter and not seen it 17 times to predict an early spring. (There is no record of the prediction for nine times in the late 19th century.)
Regardless of what Phil says, "climate records and statistics tell us that winter probably isn't over," the NCDC
