Luke Skywalker
Super Moderator
{vb:raw ozzmodz_postquote}:
President Obama and Hillary Clinton stand on stage after Obama spoke during the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia on July 27, 2016.(Photo: Jack Gruber, USA TODAY)
For better or worse, Hillary Clinton’s success in November will be<span style="color: Red;">*</span>closely tied to what people think of President Obama.
Fortunately for Clinton, right now<span style="color: Red;">*</span>the president is more popular than her and Donald Trump.
“She will win if Obama is still popular in November. And she will lose if he becomes — for whatever reason — unpopular,” said Larry Sabato, director of University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. He added<span style="color: Red;">*</span>that<span style="color: Red;">*</span>something “has to be big” for Obama’s popularity to drop between now and Election Day, such as "a surprise recession or some very serious domestic terrorism."
Clinton has aligned herself closely with the president on most policy issues —<span style="color: Red;">*</span>although she has come out against the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal he is pushing —<span style="color: Red;">*</span>and the two were literally arm-in-arm at the convention. In his speech, Obama positioned Clinton as the most qualified person ever to run for president and said<span style="color: Red;">*</span>his former secretary of State would finish the job that he started. The close relationship between the two brings opportunities for Clinton to capitalize on his popularity, but there is also risk that the president's approval could drop before the election.
“You can’t run away from the president of your own party. You can try.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>It’s never worked anytime in modern American political history,”<span style="color: Red;">*</span><span style="color: Red;">*</span>said Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University who has<span style="color: Red;">*</span>successfully predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984 based on a 13-question algorithm.
For Clinton so far, polls have suggested she shouldn't try.
Obama's approval rating has risen to the low 50s, while Clinton and Trump's<span style="color: Red;">*</span>favorability ratings were<span style="color: Red;">*</span>the same in late July at 37%,<span style="color: Red;">*</span>according to Gallup. The RealClearPolitics rolling average of polls<span style="color: Red;">*</span>shows Clinton's figure<span style="color: Red;">*</span>has improved to the low 40s since the end of the convention, however, while Trump's remains in the 30s.
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Her approach of embracing<span style="color: Red;">*</span>the president she hopes to succeed<span style="color: Red;">*</span>differs from that taken by other recent nominees of the incumbent party.
In 2008, Arizona Sen. John McCain distanced himself from President George W. Bush because the outgoing president was wildly unpopular. Bush's approval rating dipped into the mid-20s right before the election,<span style="color: Red;">*</span>according to<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Gallup.
“Why in the world would you try to cozy up to George W. Bush?” Lichtman said about McCain’s effort to downplay his connections with Bush.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>He added, though, that<span style="color: Red;">*</span>in the end “McCain couldn’t escape (Bush’s record) and for all his attempts to distance himself, it didn’t work.”
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In 2000, then-vice president Al Gore also distanced himself from then-president<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Bill Clinton. This was trickier, though,<span style="color: Red;">*</span>because Clinton had a high approval rating<span style="color: Red;">*</span>— by Election Day, he was hovering near 60% —<span style="color: Red;">*</span>but he was also plagued by the fallout from<span style="color: Red;">*</span>the Monica Lewinsky scandal.
Gore attempted to disassociate himself from Clinton, and in doing so he<span style="color: Red;">*</span>“made a strategic mistake,” according to Lichtman.
In contrast, when Vice President<span style="color: Red;">*</span>George H.W. Bush ran in 1988, he “wrapped himself in the mantle of then-president<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Ronald Reagan as closely as possible," Lichtman said.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>Reagan’s Gallup average<span style="color: Red;">*</span>that year<span style="color: Red;">*</span>was 53%, and Bush won the election handily.
President Ronald Reagan greets President-elect George H. W. Bush upon his arrival to the White House on Nov. 10, 1988.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>(Photo: Charles Tasnadi, AP)
“I think there’s a sense in which Clinton needs Barack Obama’s coattails,” said Mike Purdy, who is a presidential historian and runs the website presidentialhistory.com. “She needs Barack Obama to build up the enthusiasm of the winning coalition that he brought forth in 2008 and 2012.”
“The risks of her not running on Obama’s third term are high," he added.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>"She’s on her own with her own negatives and so why not<span style="color: Red;">*</span>... tether yourself to a very popular president who will fully embrace you and make that a winning combination?” he added.
Events could still intercede that could damage Obama's standing.<span style="color: Red;">*</span>On Friday, the Labor Department announced it had<span style="color: Red;">*</span>added 255,000 jobs in July. That number follows 292,000 in June and<span style="color: Red;">*</span>is good news for both Obama and Clinton. That follows not-so-good news that the<span style="color: Red;">*</span>gross domestic product increased just 1.2% in the second quarter of 2016.
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Regardless, the president could be critical spurring enthusiasm among core Democratic voters.
Michele Swers, a professor of government at Georgetown University, said that Clinton’s alliance with Obama is particularly important in order to bring in Democrats who will mobilize<span style="color: Red;">*</span>to help her win. Swers said because Obama is popular with Democratic voters “he’s a very good campaign surrogate for her.”
Before she can convince Republicans and independents to vote for her, Clinton needs to at minimum to “mobilize the Democratic voters and get them excited.”
“Those are the activists that are going to mobilize voters and knock on doors,” she said.
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